UEFA Nations League, round 2, League A, group 1 · Monday, 28 September, MSK · Stade Roi Baudouin
Belgium — France
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0:1Came true
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, France to win (44%), came true.
France are slightly stronger: 44% against 29%, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Belgium 1979, France 2083 — France rated higher.
- Belgium: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Belgium — France What is xG? | 1.3–1.7 | |
| Belgium not to lose | 56% | |
| France not to lose | 71% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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Form
- 25.09away · Italy2:0
- 10.07away · Spain1:2
- 07.07away · USA4:1
- 01.07Senegal3:2
- 27.06away · New Zealand5:1
Head to head
- 14.10.2024Belgium — France1:2
- 09.09.2024France — Belgium2:0
- 01.07.2024France — Belgium1:0
- 07.10.2021Belgium — France2:3
Table
Next matches
- BelgiumTurkiye2 October · UEFA Nations League6520151The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.5
- FranceItaly2 October · UEFA Nations League5923181The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 2727462The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 3127432The most likely outcome came true: 22:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:2.2.9
- 3629351The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 3026442The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
- 2931402The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
- 4728251The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 4525291The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →