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UEFA Nations League, round 2, League B, group 4 · Monday, 28 September, MSK · Strawberry Arena

Sweden — Poland

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Model prediction and result

3:1Came true
Sweden45%
Draw25%
Poland29%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Sweden to win (45%), came true.

Sweden are slightly stronger: 45% against 29%, draw 25%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 62%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Sweden 1741, Poland 1699 — Sweden rated higher.
  • Sweden: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Sweden — Poland What is xG?1.7–1.4
Sweden not to lose71%
Poland not to lose55%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes62%
Both teams to score: no38%
Total over 2.560%
Total under 2.540%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Sweden
  • Sweden goals
  • Poland goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Sweden

  • 25.09Romania2:1
  • 01.07away · France0:3
  • 26.06away · Japan1:1
  • 20.06away · Netherlands1:5
  • 15.06Tunisia5:1

Poland

  • 25.09Bosnia and Herzegovina0:0
  • 03.06Nigeria2:2
  • 31.05Ukraine0:2
  • 31.03away · Sweden2:3
  • 26.03Albania2:1

Head to head

  • 31.03.2026Sweden — Poland3:2
  • 29.03.2022Poland — Sweden2:0
  • 23.06.2021Sweden — Poland3:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveSweden43107–3+410
2, Promotion play-offsBosnia and Herzegovina42206–3+38
3Poland41127–4+34
4, Relegation play-offRomania40043–13-100

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • Bosnia and HerzegovinaSweden2 October · UEFA Nations League
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.1
  • PolandRomania2 October · UEFA Nations League
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 6:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.9

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • GeorgiaUkraine
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
  • ArmeniaMontenegro
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:2.2.9
  • LatviaCyprus
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
  • BelgiumFrance
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
  • TurkiyeItaly
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
  • Northern IrelandHungary
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
  • RomaniaBosnia and Herzegovina
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 2:4. Model's score: 1:0.2.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →