UEFA Nations League, round 2, League C, group 2 · Monday, 28 September, MSK · Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht
Armenia — Montenegro
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:3Came true
In short
Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Montenegro to win (43%), came true.
Montenegro are slightly stronger: 43% against 31%, draw 27%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Armenia 1388, Montenegro 1469 — Montenegro rated higher.
- Armenia: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Armenia — Montenegro What is xG? | 1.3–1.6 | |
| Armenia not to lose | 57% | |
| Montenegro not to lose | 69% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Armenia
- Armenia goals
- Montenegro goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 25.09Cyprus2:1
- 05.06away · Slovakia2:2
- 01.06away · Bulgaria1:0
- 31.03Slovenia2:3
- 27.03Andorra2:0
Head to head
- 09.06.2025Montenegro — Armenia2:2
- 24.03.2022Armenia — Montenegro1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Montenegro | 4 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Cyprus | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 3 | Armenia | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Latvia | 4 | 0 | -4 | 1 |
Next matches
- CyprusArmenia2 October · UEFA Nations League3826361The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
- LatviaMontenegro2 October · UEFA Nations League2228502The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.5
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 2727462The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 3629351The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 2926442The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
- 3026442The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
- 2931402The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
- 4728251The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 4525291The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →