KHL · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Tatneft Arena
Bars Kazan — Sochi
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2:3Missed
In short
Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Bars Kazan to win (77% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 77% fails in about 23 matches out of 100 on average.
Bars Kazan are clear favourites: 77% to win including overtime and shootout.
4.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.
Why
- Bars Kazan are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 1.7.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bars Kazan — Sochi | 3.2–1.7 | |
| Bars Kazan to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 77% | |
| Sochi to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 23% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 41% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 59% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Bars Kazan
- Bars Kazan goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Cherepovets1:4
- 05.10Lokomotiv Yaroslavl0:2
- 02.10Tractor Chelyabinsk2:3
- 30.09Barys Astana4:1
- 26.09away · Magnitogorsk1:2
- 09.10Spartak Moscow0:2
- 07.10Spartak Moscow2:5
- 03.10Nizhny Novgorod0:6
- 30.09Salavat Ufa6:3
- 28.09away · Shanghai1:4
Head to head
- 18.09.2026Sochi — Bars Kazan3:2
- 18.03.2026Sochi — Bars Kazan2:4
- 13.03.2026Bars Kazan — Sochi2:0
- 27.11.2024Sochi — Bars Kazan2:3 OT
- 22.09.2024Bars Kazan — Sochi5:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Spartak Moscow | 14 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 14, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Bars Kazan | 15 | 7 | -1 | 15 |
| 15, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Yekaterinburg | 13 | 6 | +2 | 14 |
| 20 | Tractor Chelyabinsk | 13 | 5 | -9 | 10 |
| 21 | Sochi | 14 | 3 | -30 | 6 |
| 22 | Lada | 15 | 1 | -35 | 6 |
Next matches
- ShanghaiBars Kazan16 October · KHL40602The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:44.9
- SochiLokomotiv Yaroslavl17 October · KHL22782The model's most likely outcome: 220%Model's score: 1:34.2
KHL on the same day
- 59411The most likely outcome came true: 122%1:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
- 60401The most likely outcome came true: 122%4:3Final score 4:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.0
- 55451The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.8
- 39612The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:3OTFinal score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 2:4.5.3
- 32682The most likely outcome came true: 220%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:4.5.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →