Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Wednesday, 14 October, MSK
IFK Helsinki — TPS Turku
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 14 October
In short
IFK Helsinki are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 40%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.5 and 2.3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: IFK Helsinki — TPS Turku | 2.5–2.3 | |
| IFK Helsinki to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 54% | |
| TPS Turku to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 46% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 40% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 60% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap IFK Helsinki
- IFK Helsinki goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10KalPa6:1
- 08.10away · Jokerit2:3 OT
- 03.10away · Vaasan Sport3:2 OT
- 26.09away · Pelicans1:2
- 25.09JYP3:4
- 10.10away · Tappara3:4 SO
- 03.10JYP4:1
- 30.09away · Kiekko-Espoo2:4
- 27.09away · Ilves2:3
- 25.09away · Jokerit2:1
Head to head
- 05.09.2026TPS Turku — IFK Helsinki5:1
- 20.12.2025TPS Turku — IFK Helsinki4:3
- 19.12.2025IFK Helsinki — TPS Turku3:4 OT
- 28.11.2025IFK Helsinki — TPS Turku3:2
- 27.09.2025TPS Turku — IFK Helsinki1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Hameenlinna | 12 | 4 | -7 | 18 |
| 11, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | TPS Turku | 11 | 5 | +4 | 16 |
| 12, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Pelicans | 10 | 5 | +1 | 16 |
| 13, Relegation play-off | KalPa | 11 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | IFK Helsinki | 11 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 15, Relegation play-off | Vaasan Sport | 11 | 3 | -11 | 13 |
Liiga on the same day
- 49512The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.4
- 59411The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →