Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Saturday, 10 October, 15:00 MSK · Burabai

Kokshetau — Nomad Astana

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Model prediction and result

3:2 OTMissed

Kokshetau39%

Draw in regulation22%

Nomad Astana40%

Model estimate at 14:38 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:2 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Nomad Astana to win (51% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.

Close to a coin flip: Kokshetau 49%, Nomad Astana 51% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 5.3 in total, against a competition average of 6.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 48%.

Why

The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.6 and 2.7.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kokshetau — Nomad Astana		2.6–2.7
Kokshetau to win (incl. OT and shootout)		49%
Nomad Astana to win (incl. OT and shootout)		51%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		48%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		52%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Kokshetau
Kokshetau goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Kokshetau

07.10away · Kulager4:3
06.10away · Kulager4:3
03.10Almaty3:2
02.10Almaty1:2
28.09Pavlodar5:3

Nomad Astana

07.10away · Torpedo3:2 SO
06.10away · Torpedo3:2 OT
02.10Kulager5:4 SO
01.10Kulager4:1
28.09Karaganda4:1

Head to head

07.02.2026Kokshetau — Nomad Astana1:5
06.02.2026Kokshetau — Nomad Astana3:4 OT
15.12.2025Kokshetau — Nomad Astana2:1
14.12.2025Kokshetau — Nomad Astana0:6
18.09.2025Nomad Astana — Kokshetau6:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Playoffs	Nomad Astana	18	16	2	0	83–36	+47	34
2, Playoffs	Torpedo	18	13	2	3	88–36	+52	28
3, Playoffs	Kokshetau	18	13	1	4	64–43	+21	27
4, Playoffs	Gornyak Rudny	18	12	1	5	71–44	+27	25

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next match

15:00
KokshetauNomad Astana11 October · Kazakhstan Championship
4753
2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 2:4. Model's score: 2:3.5.1

Kazakhstan Championship on the same day

15:00
KulagerKaraganda
3862
2The most likely outcome came true: 221%Final score 1:3. Model's score: 2:4.5.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →