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2. Bundesliga, round 11 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)

1. FC Nürnberg — Darmstadt

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Model prediction for 7 November

1. FC Nürnberg55%
Draw26%
Darmstadt19%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

1. FC Nürnberg are clear favourites: 55% against 19% for the opponent, draw 26%.

3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).

Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 64%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings 1. FC Nürnberg are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
  • 1. FC Nürnberg are 242 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • League table: 1. FC Nürnberg — No. 2, 21 pts; Darmstadt — No. 16, 9 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: 1. FC Nürnberg 1 win, Darmstadt 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: 1. FC Nürnberg — Darmstadt What is xG?2.0–1.2
1. FC Nürnberg not to lose81%
Darmstadt not to lose45%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes64%
Both teams to score: no36%
Total over 2.562%
Total under 2.538%

Model vs market

The model and the market disagree: the model rates “Draw” at 26%, the market at 21%.

  • 1. FC Nürnberg to winModel55%odds 1.82Market56%odds 1.77
  • DrawModel26%odds 3.85Market21%odds 4.73
  • Darmstadt to winModel19%odds 5.26Market22%odds 4.46
  • Total over 2.5Model62%odds 1.61Market64%odds 1.55
  • Total under 2.5Model38%odds 2.63Market36%odds 2.81
  • Both teams to score: yesModel64%odds 1.56Market63%odds 1.58
  • Both teams to score: noModel36%odds 2.78Market37%odds 2.72

Check your odds

Market — the probabilities in the bookmakers’ odds with their margin removed; odds — the fair price, 1 / probability. A comparison of two estimates, not betting advice.

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Handicap 1. FC Nürnberg
  • 1. FC Nürnberg goals
  • Darmstadt goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat1. FC NürnbergDarmstadt
Goals scored per match2.01.1
Goals conceded per match1.71.7
xG per match1.531.10
Opponents’ xG1.991.61
Shots17.011.6
On target6.03.2
Corners5.94.1
Cards2.02.1
Possession, %5640

Averages per match: 1. FC Nürnberg — the last 10, Darmstadt — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

1. FC Nürnberg

  • 01.11away · St. Pauli3:1
  • 28.10away · Bayer Leverkusen2:5
  • 24.10Kaiserslautern0:1
  • 16.10away · Energie Cottbus1:1
  • 10.10Wolfsburg4:4

Darmstadt

  • 31.10Magdeburg1:1
  • 27.10away · Elversberg2:0
  • 23.10St. Pauli0:0
  • 18.10away · Karlsruher SC0:4
  • 10.10Energie Cottbus3:1

Head to head

  • 23.01.2026Darmstadt — 1. FC Nürnberg2:0
  • 08.08.20251. FC Nürnberg — Darmstadt0:1
  • 31.01.20251. FC Nürnberg — Darmstadt1:0
  • 25.08.2024Darmstadt — 1. FC Nürnberg1:1
  • 31.03.20231. FC Nürnberg — Darmstadt0:1

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, PromotionHertha BSC1091023–8+1528
2, Promotion1. FC Nürnberg1063124–13+1121
3, Promotion play-offsWolfsburg1054125–14+1119
15Eintracht Braunschweig1031616–18-210
16, Relegation play-offDarmstadt102359–19-109
17, RelegationHolstein Kiel1015410–12-28

Season 2026/27

Full table

2. Bundesliga on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →