2. Bundesliga, round 11 · Saturday, 7 November, 15:00 (UTC+3)

VfL Osnabrück — Kaiserslautern

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Model prediction for 7 November

VfL Osnabrück40%

Draw27%

Kaiserslautern33%

Model estimate at 08:25 (UTC+3)

In short

VfL Osnabrück are slightly stronger: 40% against 33%, draw 27%.

3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).

Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 65%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

League table: VfL Osnabrück — No. 10, 11 pts; Kaiserslautern — No. 4, 18 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
Last 2 meetings: VfL Osnabrück 0 wins, Kaiserslautern 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: VfL Osnabrück — Kaiserslautern What is xG?		1.7–1.5
VfL Osnabrück not to lose		67%
Kaiserslautern not to lose		60%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		65%
Both teams to score: no		35%
Total over 2.5		60%
Total under 2.5		40%

Model vs market

The model and the market disagree: the model rates “Kaiserslautern to win” at 33%, the market at 39%.

VfL Osnabrück to winModel40%odds 2.50Market35%odds 2.83
DrawModel27%odds 3.70Market25%odds 3.94
Kaiserslautern to winModel33%odds 3.03Market39%odds 2.55
Total over 2.5Model60%odds 1.67Market57%odds 1.74
Total under 2.5Model40%odds 2.50Market43%odds 2.35
Both teams to score: yesModel65%odds 1.54Market62%odds 1.62
Both teams to score: noModel35%odds 2.86Market38%odds 2.61

Market — the probabilities in the bookmakers’ odds with their margin removed; odds — the fair price, 1 / probability. A comparison of two estimates, not betting advice.

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap VfL Osnabrück
VfL Osnabrück goals
Kaiserslautern goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	VfL Osnabrück	Kaiserslautern
Goals scored per match	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded per match	1.7	0.7
xG per match	1.50	1.51
Opponents’ xG	1.79	1.45
Shots	11.3	15.6
On target	4.5	5.3
Corners	2.7	6.2
Cards	1.9	2.7
Possession, %	41	48

Averages per match: VfL Osnabrück — the last 10, Kaiserslautern — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

VfL Osnabrück

31.10away · Wolfsburg0:2
25.10Greuther Fürth3:0
18.10away · Arminia Bielefeld1:2
10.10Dynamo Dresden1:1
19.09away · Holstein Kiel1:1

Kaiserslautern

31.10Hertha BSC0:3
28.10away · Hannover 962:0
24.10away · 1. FC Nürnberg1:0
17.10Bochum2:0
09.10away · FC Heidenheim0:0

Head to head

10.03.2024Kaiserslautern — VfL Osnabrück3:2
01.10.2023VfL Osnabrück — Kaiserslautern2:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
3, Promotion play-offs	Wolfsburg	10	5	4	1	25–14	+11	19
4	Kaiserslautern	10	5	3	2	9–7	+2	18
5	Magdeburg	10	5	2	3	21–13	+8	17
9	Greuther Fürth	10	3	3	4	13–16	-3	12
10	VfL Osnabrück	10	3	2	5	14–17	-3	11
11	Bochum	10	3	2	5	8–11	-3	11

Season 2026/27

Full table

2. Bundesliga on the same day

15:00
Holstein KielArminia Bielefeld
412930
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
15:00
1. FC NürnbergDarmstadt
552619
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
22:30
Hertha BSCWolfsburg
442630
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →