2. Bundesliga, round 11 · Saturday, 7 November, 22:30 (UTC+3)

Hertha BSC — Wolfsburg

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Model prediction for 7 November

Hertha BSC44%

Draw26%

Wolfsburg30%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

In short

Hertha BSC are slightly stronger: 44% against 30%, draw 26%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.

Over 2.5 goals — 70%, both teams to score — 73%.

Why

By the strength ratings Hertha BSC are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Hertha BSC are 150 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Hertha BSC — No. 1, 28 pts; Wolfsburg — No. 3, 19 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
Hertha BSC: 3 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Hertha BSC 1 win, Wolfsburg 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Hertha BSC — Wolfsburg What is xG?		2.0–1.7
Hertha BSC not to lose		70%
Wolfsburg not to lose		56%
No draw		74%
Both teams to score: yes		73%
Both teams to score: no		27%
Total over 2.5		70%
Total under 2.5		30%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Hertha BSC
Hertha BSC goals
Wolfsburg goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Hertha BSC	Wolfsburg
Goals scored per match	2.1	2.9
Goals conceded per match	0.8	2.0
xG per match	2.61	2.24
Opponents’ xG	1.09	1.72
Shots	21.4	20.6
On target	6.9	7.6
Corners	7.1	7.1
Cards	2.0	2.3
Possession, %	55	58

Averages per match: Hertha BSC — the last 10, Wolfsburg — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Hertha BSC

31.10away · Kaiserslautern3:0
28.10away · SSV Jeddeloh2:0
24.10Arminia Bielefeld1:0
16.10away · Holstein Kiel0:0
11.10Greuther Fürth2:1

Wolfsburg

31.10VfL Osnabrück2:0
28.10away · Freiburg2:3
23.10away · Bochum1:1
17.10FC Heidenheim3:1
10.10away · 1. FC Nürnberg4:4

Head to head

27.05.2023Wolfsburg — Hertha BSC1:2
24.01.2023Hertha BSC — Wolfsburg0:5
15.01.2022Wolfsburg — Hertha BSC0:0
21.08.2021Hertha BSC — Wolfsburg1:2
27.02.2021Wolfsburg — Hertha BSC2:0

Full record: 14 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion	Hertha BSC	10	9	1	0	23–8	+15	28
2, Promotion	1. FC Nürnberg	10	6	3	1	24–13	+11	21
3, Promotion play-offs	Wolfsburg	10	5	4	1	25–14	+11	19
4	Kaiserslautern	10	5	3	2	9–7	+2	18

Season 2026/27

Full table

2. Bundesliga on the same day

15:00
Holstein KielArminia Bielefeld
412930
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
15:00
1. FC NürnbergDarmstadt
552619
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
15:00
VfL OsnabrückKaiserslautern
402733
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →