2. Bundesliga, round 11 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Holstein Kiel — Arminia Bielefeld
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Holstein Kiel are slightly stronger: 41% against 30%, draw 29%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Holstein Kiel — No. 17, 8 pts; Arminia Bielefeld — No. 7, 14 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Last 4 meetings: Holstein Kiel 0 wins, Arminia Bielefeld 3, 1 draw.
- Days of rest before the match: Holstein Kiel 6, Arminia Bielefeld 8.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Holstein Kiel — Arminia Bielefeld What is xG? | 1.5–1.3 | |
| Holstein Kiel not to lose | 70% | |
| Arminia Bielefeld not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
Model vs market
The model agrees with the market: no outcome differs by more than 3 points.
- Holstein Kiel to winModel41%odds 2.44Market39%odds 2.58
- DrawModel29%odds 3.45Market28%odds 3.55
- Arminia Bielefeld to winModel30%odds 3.33Market33%odds 3.02
- Total over 2.5Model54%odds 1.85Market54%odds 1.85
- Total under 2.5Model46%odds 2.17Market46%odds 2.18
- Both teams to score: yesModel60%odds 1.67Market61%odds 1.65
- Both teams to score: noModel40%odds 2.50Market39%odds 2.54
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- Arminia Bielefeld goals
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Holstein Kiel | Arminia Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 1.31 | 1.34 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.44 | 1.34 |
| Shots | 13.6 | 13.0 |
| On target | 3.2 | 3.5 |
| Corners | 5.6 | 5.3 |
| Cards | 3.1 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 52 | 44 |
Form
- 01.11away · Greuther Fürth0:1
- 28.10Hoffenheim1:1
- 25.10Dynamo Dresden3:0
- 16.10Hertha BSC0:0
- 09.10away · Eintracht Braunschweig0:1
- 30.10Eintracht Braunschweig3:1
- 24.10away · Hertha BSC0:1
- 18.10VfL Osnabrück2:1
- 11.10away · Bochum1:0
- 20.09FC Heidenheim2:2
Head to head
- 23.01.2026Arminia Bielefeld — Holstein Kiel2:2
- 10.08.2025Holstein Kiel — Arminia Bielefeld0:2
- 02.04.2023Holstein Kiel — Arminia Bielefeld2:3
- 17.09.2022Arminia Bielefeld — Holstein Kiel4:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Heidenheim | 10 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Arminia Bielefeld | 10 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 | St. Pauli | 10 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Darmstadt | 10 | 2 | -10 | 9 |
| 17, Relegation | Holstein Kiel | 10 | 1 | -2 | 8 |
| 18, Relegation | Dynamo Dresden | 10 | 2 | -8 | 8 |
2. Bundesliga on the same day
- 5526191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
- 4027331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- 4426301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →