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Paraguayan Primera Division · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Monumental Río Parapití

2 de Mayo — Recoleta

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Model prediction and result

1:1Missed
2 de Mayo40%
Draw30%
Recoleta31%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, 2 de Mayo to win (40%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 40% fails in about 60 matches out of 100 on average.

2 de Mayo are slightly stronger: 40% against 31%, draw 30%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • 2 de Mayo are 203 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: 2 de Mayo 1 win, Recoleta 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: 2 de Mayo — Recoleta What is xG?1.4–1.3
2 de Mayo not to lose69%
Recoleta not to lose60%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes58%
Both teams to score: no42%
Total over 2.551%
Total under 2.549%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap 2 de Mayo
  • 2 de Mayo goals
  • Recoleta goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 19′Manuel Schupp · Recoleta
  2. 32′Nicolás Marotta · Recoleta
  3. 58′Brahian Ferreira · Recoleta0:1
  4. 78′César Castro · 2 de Mayo
  5. 82′Andrés Marsengo · Recoleta
  6. 92′Jorge Sanguina · 2 de Mayo
  7. 93′Marcos Gómez · 2 de Mayo1:1
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Brahian Ferreira ↔ Manuel Schupp · Recoleta
  2. 64′Aldo González ↔ Thiago Vidal · Recoleta
  3. 64′José Espínola ↔ Claudio Garay · Recoleta
  4. 65′Matías Cáceres ↔ Luis Delgadillo · 2 de Mayo
  5. 66′Pedro Delvalle ↔ Alan Gómez · 2 de Mayo
  6. 76′Estifen Díaz ↔ Matías Moya · 2 de Mayo
  7. 76′Jorge Sanguina ↔ Tobías Cervera · 2 de Mayo
  8. 77′Ángel Aguilera ↔ Alexis Fariña · 2 de Mayo
  9. 81′Kevin Parzajuk ↔ Renzo Martino · Recoleta
  10. 83′Blas Medina ↔ Wilfrido Báez · Recoleta

Match statistics

2 de MayoRecoleta
  • 64Possession, %36
  • 14Shots6
  • 2On target1
  • 0Big chances0
  • 8Corners1
  • 11Fouls15
  • 0Offsides1
  • 2Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

2 de Mayo

  1. GKNicolás Rossi6.1
  2. DFRodrigo Gómez7.0
  3. DFPedro Sosa (C)6.8
  4. DFCésar Castro6.9
  5. DFAlexis Villalva7.2
  6. MFMarcos Gómez8.1
  7. MFAlexis Fariña77′7.1
  8. MFLuis Delgadillo65′6.7
  9. FWTobías Cervera76′6.3
  10. FWMatías Moya76′7.1
  11. FWAlan Gómez66′6.1
Came on (5)
  1. FWJorge Sanguina14′6.0
  2. MFEstifen Díaz14′6.2
  3. FWPedro Delvalle24′6.6
  4. FWMatías Cáceres25′7.1
  5. MFÁngel Aguilera13′6.1

Recoleta

  1. GKOscar Toledo6.9
  2. DFNicolás Marotta6.6
  3. DFPedro Ríos7.4
  4. DFMarcos Pereira6.7
  5. DFClaudio Figueredo6.7
  6. MFManuel Schupp45′6.1
  7. MFClaudio Garay (C)64′6.8
  8. MFWilfrido Báez83′6.5
  9. MFAlexander Franco7.0
  10. FWThiago Vidal64′6.4
  11. FWRenzo Martino81′7.3
Came on (5)
  1. FWKevin Parzajuk9′
  2. DFBlas Medina7′
  3. DFJosé Espínola26′6.3
  4. MFAldo González26′5.7
  5. FWBrahian Ferreira45′7.8

Form

2 de Mayo

  • 18.10away · Olimpia0:3
  • 12.10Sportivo Ameliano1:0
  • 06.10away · Cerro Porteño2:0
  • 26.09away · Rubio Ñú2:2
  • 19.09away · Nacional (PAR)0:3

Recoleta

  • 17.10Rubio Ñú1:0
  • 13.10away · Nacional (PAR)0:1
  • 05.10Libertad1:2
  • 28.09away · Sportivo San Lorenzo0:0
  • 21.09away · Luqueño0:1

Head to head

  • 15.08.2026Recoleta — 2 de Mayo1:2
  • 19.04.2026Recoleta — 2 de Mayo5:0
  • 21.02.20262 de Mayo — Recoleta0:1
  • 22.11.20252 de Mayo — Recoleta0:2
  • 30.08.2025Recoleta — 2 de Mayo2:0

Full record: 8 meetings →

Next matches

  • Guaraní2 de Mayo31 October · Paraguayan Primera
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.3
  • RecoletaSportivo Ameliano31 October · Paraguayan Primera
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.7

Paraguayan Primera on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →