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Paraguayan Primera Division · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio La Arboleda

Guaraní — 2 de Mayo

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Model prediction and result

1:0Came true
Guaraní52%
Draw28%
2 de Mayo20%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Guaraní to win (52%), came true.

Guaraní are clear favourites: 52% against 20% for the opponent, draw 28%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 46%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Guaraní are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
  • Guaraní are 129 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Guaraní 1 win, 2 de Mayo 1, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Guaraní — 2 de Mayo What is xG?1.4–0.8
Guaraní not to lose80%
2 de Mayo not to lose48%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes46%
Both teams to score: no54%
Total over 2.542%
Total under 2.558%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Guaraní
  • Guaraní goals
  • 2 de Mayo goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 28′Luis Delgadillo · 2 de Mayo
  2. 37′Armando Méndez · Guaraní
  3. 48′Victor Céspedes · Guaraní1:0
  4. 73′Alexis Villalva · 2 de Mayo
  5. 75′Alexis Fariña · 2 de Mayo
  6. 86′Marcelo González · 2 de Mayo
  7. 93′Camilo Saiz · 2 de Mayo
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Matías López ↔ Luis Martínez · Guaraní
  2. 46′Alexis Fariña ↔ Luis Delgadillo · 2 de Mayo
  3. 57′Pedro Delvalle ↔ Matías Moya · 2 de Mayo
  4. 68′Miguel Jacquet ↔ Thiago Servín · Guaraní
  5. 69′Matías Cáceres ↔ Tobías Cervera · 2 de Mayo
  6. 74′Jesús Llano ↔ Fernando Fernández · Guaraní
  7. 80′Jorge Sanguina ↔ Alan Gómez · 2 de Mayo
  8. 80′Marcelo González ↔ Rodrigo Gómez · 2 de Mayo
  9. 86′René Rodríguez ↔ Maximiliano Añasco · Guaraní
  10. 86′Juan Manuel García ↔ Jorge Recalde · Guaraní

Match statistics

Guaraní2 de Mayo
  • 47Possession, %53
  • 14Shots10
  • 4On target2
  • 2Big chances0
  • 4Corners6
  • 10Fouls12
  • 2Offsides3
  • 1Yellow cards5
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Guaraní

  1. GKMiguel Martínez7.3
  2. DFArmando Méndez7.6
  3. DFImanol Segovia7.9
  4. DFThiago Servín68′7.6
  5. DFLeandro Allende8.1
  6. MFLuis Martínez45′6.8
  7. MFGiovanni Gómez7.1
  8. MFVictor Céspedes7.8
  9. MFMaximiliano Añasco86′7.6
  10. FWJorge Recalde86′7.5
  11. FWFernando Fernández (C)74′7.4
Came on (5)
  1. FWJuan Manuel García4′
  2. DFMiguel Jacquet22′6.6
  3. MFMatías López45′6.8
  4. MFJesús Llano16′6.2
  5. DFRené Rodríguez4′

2 de Mayo

  1. GKNicolás Rossi6.4
  2. DFRodrigo Gómez80′6.3
  3. DFPedro Sosa (C)6.3
  4. DFCamilo Saiz6.3
  5. DFCésar Castro5.9
  6. DFAlexis Villalva6.8
  7. MFMatías Moya57′6.5
  8. MFMarcos Gómez7.1
  9. MFAlan Gómez80′6.5
  10. MFLuis Delgadillo45′6.1
  11. FWTobías Cervera69′6.6
Came on (5)
  1. FWJorge Sanguina10′5.8
  2. FWMarcelo González10′6.2
  3. FWPedro Delvalle33′6.1
  4. FWMatías Cáceres21′6.1
  5. MFAlexis Fariña45′7.1

Form

Guaraní

  • 23.10away · Rubio Ñú2:0
  • 17.10Nacional (PAR)0:2
  • 12.10away · Libertad2:2
  • 03.10Sportivo San Lorenzo1:1
  • 25.09away · Luqueño1:0

2 de Mayo

  • 25.10Recoleta1:1
  • 18.10away · Olimpia0:3
  • 12.10Sportivo Ameliano1:0
  • 06.10away · Cerro Porteño2:0
  • 26.09away · Rubio Ñú2:2

Head to head

  • 26.08.20262 de Mayo — Guaraní0:0
  • 26.04.20262 de Mayo — Guaraní2:2
  • 26.03.2026Guaraní — 2 de Mayo1:1
  • 13.09.20252 de Mayo — Guaraní1:0
  • 07.07.2025Guaraní — 2 de Mayo3:1

Full record: 12 meetings →

Next matches

  • 2 de MayoSportivo Trinidense3 November · Paraguayan Primera
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
  • Sportivo AmelianoGuaraní5 November · Paraguayan Primera
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.4

Paraguayan Primera on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →