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Paraguayan Primera Division · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Ricardo Gregor

Recoleta — Sportivo Ameliano

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Model prediction and result

3:0Came true
Recoleta39%
Draw29%
Sportivo Ameliano32%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, Recoleta to win (39%), came true.

Recoleta are slightly stronger: 39% against 32%, draw 29%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Sportivo Ameliano are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
  • Recoleta's starting XI is weaker than usual (attack).

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • Sportivo Ameliano: winless in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Recoleta 2 wins, Sportivo Ameliano 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Recoleta — Sportivo Ameliano What is xG?1.4–1.3
Recoleta not to lose68%
Sportivo Ameliano not to lose61%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes57%
Both teams to score: no43%
Total over 2.550%
Total under 2.550%

181 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Recoleta
  • Recoleta goals
  • Sportivo Ameliano goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 12′Aldo González · Recoleta1:0
  2. 37′Claudio Garay · penalty · Recoleta2:0
  3. 45′Alexander Franco · Recoleta
  4. 54′Aldo González · Recoleta3:0
  5. 68′Ronal Domínguez · Recoleta
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Wilfrido Báez ↔ Brahian Ferreira · Recoleta
  2. 46′Luis Ortiz ↔ Raúl Cabral · Sportivo Ameliano
  3. 59′Carlos Favero ↔ Fredy Vera · Sportivo Ameliano
  4. 59′Fabián Franco ↔ Ronald Peralta · Sportivo Ameliano
  5. 61′Alejandro Silva ↔ Claudio Garay · Recoleta
  6. 61′Ronal Domínguez ↔ Alexander Franco · Recoleta
  7. 61′Renzo Martino ↔ Aldo González · Recoleta
  8. 65′Fernando Galeano ↔ Blas Medina · Recoleta
  9. 75′Estivel Moreira ↔ Jonathan Benítez · Sportivo Ameliano
  10. 81′Luis Ayala ↔ Edgar Páez · Sportivo Ameliano

Match statistics

RecoletaSportivo Ameliano
  • 52Possession, %48
  • 16Shots15
  • 8On target6
  • 6Big chances1
  • 5Corners3
  • 10Fouls7
  • 3Offsides4
  • 2Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Recoleta

  1. GKOscar Toledo8.1
  2. DFNicolás Marotta7.9
  3. DFBlas Medina65′7.2
  4. DFLucas Monzón7.6
  5. DFPedro Ríos8.5
  6. MFManuel Schupp7.4
  7. MFClaudio Garay (C)61′8.0
  8. MFAlexander Franco61′7.8
  9. MFBrahian Ferreira45′6.3
  10. FWAldo González61′8.8
  11. FWPaul Charpentier7.1
Came on (5)
  1. MFAlejandro Silva29′6.6
  2. MFRonal Domínguez29′6.2
  3. MFFernando Galeano25′6.7
  4. FWWilfrido Báez45′7.2
  5. DFRenzo Martino29′6.0

Sportivo Ameliano

  1. GKÁngel Sánchez6.5
  2. DFAbel Paredes (C)6.7
  3. DFHugo Javier Benítez6.3
  4. DFRonald Peralta59′6.2
  5. DFLuca Falabella6.8
  6. MFRaúl Cabral45′6.0
  7. MFValentín Larralde7.0
  8. MFJonathan Benítez75′6.2
  9. FWFredy Vera59′6.6
  10. FWEdgar Páez81′5.9
  11. FWRichard Torales6.4
Came on (5)
  1. FWCarlos Favero31′6.1
  2. DFFabián Franco31′6.5
  3. MFEstivel Moreira15′6.0
  4. MFLuis Ortiz45′6.4
  5. MFLuis Ayala9′

Form

Recoleta

  • 25.10away · 2 de Mayo1:1
  • 17.10Rubio Ñú1:0
  • 13.10away · Nacional (PAR)0:1
  • 05.10Libertad1:2
  • 28.09away · Sportivo San Lorenzo0:0

Sportivo Ameliano

  • 25.10Olimpia2:3
  • 18.10away · Cerro Porteño2:2
  • 12.10away · 2 de Mayo0:1
  • 06.10Rubio Ñú1:2
  • 26.09away · Nacional (PAR)1:1

Head to head

  • 22.08.2026Sportivo Ameliano — Recoleta3:1
  • 11.05.2026Sportivo Ameliano — Recoleta3:2
  • 10.03.2026Recoleta — Sportivo Ameliano1:1
  • 29.09.2025Sportivo Ameliano — Recoleta1:4
  • 22.07.2025Recoleta — Sportivo Ameliano3:1

Full record: 8 meetings →

Next matches

  • Sportivo AmelianoGuaraní5 November · Paraguayan Primera
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.4
  • OlimpiaRecoleta5 November · Paraguayan Primera
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0

Paraguayan Primera on the same day

  • Guaraní2 de Mayo
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.3
  • Sportivo TrinidenseRubio Ñú
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 2:4. Model's score: 3:0.2.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →