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Paraguayan Primera Division · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Ameliano Villeta

Sportivo Ameliano — Olimpia

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Model prediction and result

2:3Came true
Sportivo Ameliano21%
Draw28%
Olimpia51%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Olimpia to win (51%), came true.

Olimpia are clear favourites: 51% against 21% for the opponent, draw 28%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Olimpia are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
  • Olimpia are 69 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • Sportivo Ameliano: winless in 5; Olimpia: unbeaten in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Sportivo Ameliano 0 wins, Olimpia 3, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Sportivo Ameliano — Olimpia What is xG?1.0–1.5
Sportivo Ameliano not to lose49%
Olimpia not to lose79%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes52%
Both teams to score: no48%
Total over 2.547%
Total under 2.553%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Sportivo Ameliano
  • Sportivo Ameliano goals
  • Olimpia goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 31′Gabriel Ávalos · Olimpia0:1
  2. 33′Luca Falabella · Sportivo Ameliano1:1
  3. 50′Richard Ortiz · Olimpia
  4. 52′Valentín Larralde · Sportivo Ameliano
  5. 53′Fernando Cardozo · Olimpia
  6. 59′Richard Sánchez · Olimpia1:2
  7. 63′Richard Sánchez · Olimpia1:3
  8. 72′Fredy Vera · penalty · Sportivo Ameliano2:3
  9. 88′Julio González · Sportivo Ameliano
  10. 94′Mateo Gamarra · Olimpia
  11. 95′Marcelo Camargo · Sportivo Ameliano
  12. 95′Fabián Franco · Sportivo Ameliano
Substitutions (10)
  1. 56′Richard Torales ↔ Cristhian Ocampos · Sportivo Ameliano
  2. 56′Richard Sánchez ↔ Eduardo Delmás · Olimpia
  3. 56′Romeo Benítez ↔ Sebastián Ferreira · Olimpia
  4. 62′Estivel Moreira ↔ Valentín Larralde · Sportivo Ameliano
  5. 62′Carlos Favero ↔ Edgar Páez · Sportivo Ameliano
  6. 65′Iván Leguizamón ↔ Alex Franco · Olimpia
  7. 73′Luis Ayala ↔ Raúl Cabral · Sportivo Ameliano
  8. 73′Marcelo Camargo ↔ Walter Rodríguez · Sportivo Ameliano
  9. 79′Tiago Caballero ↔ Gabriel Ávalos · Olimpia
  10. 80′Sebastián Quintana ↔ Fernando Cardozo · Olimpia

Match statistics

Sportivo AmelianoOlimpia
  • 49Possession, %51
  • 10Shots19
  • 3On target6
  • 2Big chances5
  • 4Corners4
  • 10Fouls17
  • 3Offsides3
  • 3Yellow cards3
  • 1Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Sportivo Ameliano

  1. GKÁngel Sánchez5.6
  2. DFJulio González (C)88′6.0
  3. DFFabián Franco7.2
  4. DFRonald Peralta5.6
  5. DFLuca Falabella8.4
  6. MFRaúl Cabral73′6.5
  7. MFValentín Larralde62′7.0
  8. MFWalter Rodríguez73′6.7
  9. FWFredy Vera7.8
  10. FWEdgar Páez62′6.7
  11. FWCristhian Ocampos56′6.2
Came on (5)
  1. FWRichard Torales34′6.5
  2. FWCarlos Favero28′6.4
  3. MFEstivel Moreira28′6.2
  4. MFLuis Ayala17′5.8
  5. MFMarcelo Camargo17′6.2

Olimpia

  1. GKGastón Olveira6.3
  2. DFMateo Gamarra8.0
  3. DFRaúl Cáceres7.5
  4. DFAlan Rodríguez7.2
  5. DFGustavo Vargas7.4
  6. MFAlex Franco65′7.0
  7. MFRichard Ortiz (C)7.2
  8. FWGabriel Ávalos79′8.9
  9. FWFernando Cardozo80′7.4
  10. FWSebastián Ferreira56′6.6
  11. FWEduardo Delmás56′6.9
Came on (5)
  1. MFRichard Sánchez34′8.8
  2. MFRomeo Benítez34′6.9
  3. MFIván Leguizamón25′6.5
  4. FWTiago Caballero11′6.1
  5. MFSebastián Quintana10′6.7

Form

Sportivo Ameliano

  • 18.10away · Cerro Porteño2:2
  • 12.10away · 2 de Mayo0:1
  • 06.10Rubio Ñú1:2
  • 26.09away · Nacional (PAR)1:1
  • 19.09away · Libertad1:1

Olimpia

  • 18.102 de Mayo3:0
  • 11.10away · Rubio Ñú0:0
  • 07.10Nacional (PAR)1:1
  • 29.09away · Libertad1:0
  • 20.09away · Sportivo San Lorenzo3:0

Head to head

  • 17.08.2026Olimpia — Sportivo Ameliano2:1
  • 03.05.2026Olimpia — Sportivo Ameliano1:1
  • 01.03.2026Sportivo Ameliano — Olimpia0:1
  • 05.10.2025Olimpia — Sportivo Ameliano2:1
  • 27.07.2025Sportivo Ameliano — Olimpia1:1

Full record: 16 meetings →

Next matches

  • RecoletaSportivo Ameliano31 October · Paraguayan Primera
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
  • Cerro PorteñoOlimpia1 November · Paraguayan Primera
    XThe most likely outcome did not happen: XFinal score 0:2. Model's score: 2:2.2.6

Paraguayan Primera on the same day

  • 2 de MayoRecoleta
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →