Super League Greece, round 6 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · ALLWYN Arena
AEK Athens — OFI Crete
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:0Came true
In short
Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, AEK Athens to win (80%), came true.
AEK Athens are clear favourites: 80% against 6% for the opponent, draw 14%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings AEK Athens are about 1.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: AEK Athens — OFI Crete What is xG? | 2.5–0.7 | |
| AEK Athens not to lose | 94% | |
| OFI Crete not to lose | 20% | |
| No draw | 86% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap AEK Athens
- AEK Athens goals
- OFI Crete goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 20.09away · NFC Volos2:1
- 13.09away · Asteras Tripolis1:1
- 08.09LASK1:0
- 05.09Aris Thessaloniki5:0
- 30.08away · Kifisia FC1:1
- 20.09Asteras Tripolis2:2
- 17.09Hoffenheim2:0
- 12.09away · Olympiacos1:0
- 06.09Kifisia FC2:0
- 30.08away · Aris Thessaloniki1:2
Head to head
- 21.12.2025AEK Athens — OFI Crete2:1
- 09.11.2025OFI Crete — AEK Athens0:1
- 08.12.2024OFI Crete — AEK Athens1:2
- 18.08.2024AEK Athens — OFI Crete3:0
- 28.01.2024AEK Athens — OFI Crete3:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 6 | 5 | +9 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Athens | 6 | 4 | +13 | 14 |
| 3 | Olympiacos | 6 | 4 | +3 | 13 |
| 4 | PAOK Thessaloniki | 6 | 4 | +5 | 12 |
| 5 | OFI Crete | 6 | 3 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Aris Thessaloniki | 6 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
Next matches
- Shakhtar DonetskAEK Athens14 October · Champions League5125241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- RennesOFI Crete15 October · Europa League751691The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
Greek Super League on the same day
- 373131XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:0.2.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 80% will not happen in roughly 20 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →