PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

UEFA Champions League, round 4 · Wednesday, 4 November, (UTC+3)

AEK Athens — Real Madrid

☆ Save match

Model prediction for 4 November

AEK Athens19%
Draw23%
Real Madrid59%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Real Madrid are clear favourites: 59% against 19% for the opponent, draw 23%.

The model expects few goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.

Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

  • Real Madrid's starting XI is worth €702m, AEK Athens's €38m (Transfermarkt).
  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • League table: AEK Athens — No. 20, 3 pts; Real Madrid — No. 9, 6 pts. A gap of 3 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: AEK Athens — Real Madrid What is xG?1.0–2.0
AEK Athens not to lose41%
Real Madrid not to lose81%
No draw77%
Both teams to score: yes55%
Both teams to score: no45%
Total over 2.557%
Total under 2.543%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap AEK Athens
  • AEK Athens goals
  • Real Madrid goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

AEK Athens

  • 14.10away · Shakhtar Donetsk1:3
  • 10.10OFI Crete3:0
  • 20.09away · NFC Volos2:1
  • 13.09away · Asteras Tripolis1:1
  • 08.09LASK1:0

Real Madrid

  • 14.10away · Roma4:3
  • 10.10Villarreal1:0
  • 20.09away · Atlético Madrid1:2
  • 15.09away · Elche3:2
  • 12.09Rayo Vallecano4:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
8, Straight to the round of 16Real Betis22006–4+26
9, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Real Madrid22006–4+26
10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Bayern München21108–3+54
19, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Lens21013–4-13
20, Knockout play-off for the round of 16AEK Athens21012–3-13
21, Knockout play-off for the round of 16RB Leipzig21012–4-23

Season 2026/27

Full table

Champions League on the same day

  • FenerbahçeLiverpoolpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
  • Borussia DortmundReal Betispreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
  • FC PortoNapolipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
  • PSV EindhovenClub Bruggepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
  • RB LeipzigManchester Citypreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
  • Slavia PragueArsenalpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.3
  • LensComopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
  • VikingSabah FKpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →