UEFA Conference League, round 3 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
AGF — Braga
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: AGF 35%, Braga 39%, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- Braga's starting XI is worth €49m, AGF's €17m (Transfermarkt).
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: AGF — No. 29, 0 pts; Braga — No. 35, 0 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: AGF — Braga What is xG? | 1.4–1.5 | |
| AGF not to lose | 61% | |
| Braga not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap AGF
- AGF goals
- Braga goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 15.10away · Gent0:1
- 12.10Sønderjyske3:0
- 20.09away · AC Horsens2:2
- 13.09away · Nordsjælland0:2
- 05.09Silkeborg2:2
- 15.10away · FC København0:3
- 09.10Sporting CP1:3
- 20.09away · Santa Clara0:0
- 14.09Estoril1:0
- 10.09away · Estrela da Amadora1:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | AGF | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 30 | Thun | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 34 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 35 | Braga | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
| 36 | FK Kauno Žalgiris | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 |
Conference League on the same day
- AtalantaKairat Almatypreliminary801371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.5
- FC MidtjyllandAjaxpreliminary3926351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- FK Crvena ZvezdaInter Club d'Escaldespreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- KuPSGentpreliminary2023562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
- Lincoln Red Imps FCHajduk Splitpreliminary3126432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- TrabzonsporFreiburgpreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- ThunHeart of Midlothianpreliminary3326412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- MjällbyBorac Banja Lukapreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →