Danish Superliga, round 10 · Monday, 12 October, 20:00 MSK · Ceres Park Vejlby

AGF — Sønderjyske

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Model prediction and result

3:0Came true

AGF66%

Draw20%

Sønderjyske14%

Model estimate at 19:41 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, AGF to win (66%), came true.

AGF are clear favourites: 66% against 14% for the opponent, draw 20%.

3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).

Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 61%.

Why

By the strength ratings AGF are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: AGF — Sønderjyske What is xG?		2.3–1.1
AGF not to lose		86%
Sønderjyske not to lose		34%
No draw		80%
Both teams to score: yes		61%
Both teams to score: no		39%
Total over 2.5		65%
Total under 2.5		35%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap AGF
AGF goals
Sønderjyske goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

AGF

20.09away · AC Horsens2:2
13.09away · Nordsjælland0:2
05.09Silkeborg2:2
02.09FC Midtjylland0:2
30.08away · Randers FC1:2

Sønderjyske

20.09Randers FC4:2
13.09away · Lyngby1:1
06.09AC Horsens2:5
31.08away · FC København1:3
23.08Nordsjælland0:3

Head to head

03.05.2026AGF — Sønderjyske2:1
15.03.2026Sønderjyske — AGF1:1
09.11.2025AGF — Sønderjyske2:3
20.07.2025Sønderjyske — AGF1:1
16.02.2025Sønderjyske — AGF1:4

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
9, Relegation round	OB	10	2	4	4	8–14	-6	10
10, Relegation round	AGF	10	1	5	4	14–17	-3	8
11, Relegation round	Lyngby	10	1	4	5	12–21	-9	7
12, Relegation round	Sønderjyske	10	1	2	7	12–24	-12	5

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

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GentAGF15 October · Conference League
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1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
15:00
SønderjyskeSilkeborg18 October · Danish Superliga
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1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →