Swedish Allsvenskan, round 29 · Saturday, 21 November, 17:00 (UTC+3)

AIK — Degerfors

Model prediction for 21 November

AIK52%

Draw25%

Degerfors22%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

AIK are clear favourites: 52% against 22% for the opponent, draw 25%.

3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 61%.

Why

By the strength ratings AIK are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
AIK are 235 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: AIK — No. 8, 38 pts; Degerfors — No. 14, 20 pts. A gap of 18 pts.
Degerfors: 4 defeats in a row.
Last 5 meetings: AIK 3 wins, Degerfors 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: AIK — Degerfors What is xG?		1.8–1.2
AIK not to lose		78%
Degerfors not to lose		48%
No draw		75%
Both teams to score: yes		61%
Both teams to score: no		39%
Total over 2.5		58%
Total under 2.5		42%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap AIK
AIK goals
Degerfors goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	AIK	Degerfors
Goals scored per match	1.8	0.5
Goals conceded per match	2.2	1.9
xG per match	1.77	0.92
Opponents’ xG	2.02	1.74
Shots	15.0	11.6
On target	5.2	3.1
Corners	4.7	5.1
Cards	1.7	1.7
Possession, %	57	48

Averages per match: AIK — the last 10, Degerfors — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

AIK

02.11away · GAIS1:2
27.10Elfsborg2:2
24.10away · Sirius2:1
17.10IFK Göteborg2:2
10.10Brommapojkarna5:6

Degerfors

01.11away · Djurgården1:2
28.10Västerås SK0:3
24.10away · Häcken0:4
19.10Kalmar FF1:2
10.10away · Mjällby1:1

Head to head

23.04.2026Degerfors — AIK2:1
24.08.2025Degerfors — AIK0:1
13.07.2025AIK — Degerfors3:0
18.09.2023AIK — Degerfors2:0
20.05.2023Degerfors — AIK2:1

Full record: 9 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
7	Malmö FF	27	12	4	11	42–36	+6	40
8	AIK	27	10	8	9	43–47	-4	38
9	IFK Göteborg	27	10	8	9	36–46	-10	38
13	Kalmar FF	27	6	5	16	23–42	-19	23
14, Relegation play-off	Degerfors	27	5	5	17	22–46	-24	20
15, Relegation	Örgryte	27	4	7	16	33–60	-27	19

Season 2026

Full table

Allsvenskan on the same day

17:00
MjällbyMalmö FFpreliminary
362835
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
19:30
GAISVästerås SKpreliminary
452728
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →