Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 13 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Ajax — ADO Den Haag
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Ajax are clear favourites: 74% against 9% for the opponent, draw 17%.
3.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Ajax are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
- Ajax are 335 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Ajax — No. 2, 24 pts; ADO Den Haag — No. 17, 6 pts. A gap of 18 pts.
- Ajax: 4 wins in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ajax — ADO Den Haag What is xG? | 2.5–0.9 | |
| Ajax not to lose | 91% | |
| ADO Den Haag not to lose | 26% | |
| No draw | 83% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 66% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 34% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Ajax
- Ajax goals
- ADO Den Haag goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Ajax | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| xG per match | 2.19 | 1.14 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.41 | 1.85 |
| Shots | 20.3 | 12.8 |
| On target | 6.9 | 4.1 |
| Corners | 6.0 | 3.4 |
| Cards | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Possession, % | 61 | 50 |
Form
- 31.10AZ Alkmaar1:0
- 25.10away · Sparta Rotterdam2:1
- 22.10Atalanta2:0
- 18.10away · FC Groningen5:2
- 15.10away · Hajduk Split1:2
- 01.11away · PEC Zwolle0:1
- 24.10SC Heerenveen2:3
- 17.10PSV Eindhoven2:1
- 11.10away · Telstar2:2
- 19.09Cambuur1:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Feyenoord | 11 | 7 | +21 | 25 |
| 2, Champions League qualifying | Ajax | 11 | 7 | +17 | 24 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7 | +22 | 23 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Telstar | 11 | 2 | -7 | 9 |
| 17, Relegation | ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1 | -11 | 6 |
| 18, Relegation | Willem II | 11 | 0 | -29 | 2 |
Eredivisie on the same day
- FC TwenteWillem IIpreliminary90831The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.9
- Sparta RotterdamAZ Alkmaarpreliminary2127532The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2
- Go Ahead EaglesFortuna Sittardpreliminary6023171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 74% will not happen in roughly 26 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →