Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 13 · Sunday, 22 November, 16:30 (UTC+3)

Sparta Rotterdam — AZ Alkmaar

Model prediction for 22 November

Sparta Rotterdam21%

Draw27%

AZ Alkmaar53%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

AZ Alkmaar are clear favourites: 53% against 21% for the opponent, draw 27%.

3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 66%.

Why

By the strength ratings AZ Alkmaar are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
AZ Alkmaar are 59 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Sparta Rotterdam — No. 11, 12 pts; AZ Alkmaar — No. 5, 20 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Sparta Rotterdam 1 win, AZ Alkmaar 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam — AZ Alkmaar What is xG?		1.3–1.9
Sparta Rotterdam not to lose		47%
AZ Alkmaar not to lose		79%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		66%
Both teams to score: no		34%
Total over 2.5		63%
Total under 2.5		37%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam goals
AZ Alkmaar goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Sparta Rotterdam	AZ Alkmaar
Goals scored per match	2.0	1.3
Goals conceded per match	2.5	1.2
xG per match	2.01	1.73
Opponents’ xG	1.69	1.35
Shots	14.1	14.8
On target	5.5	5.5
Corners	5.8	5.8
Cards	1.6	1.9
Possession, %	45	58

Averages per match: Sparta Rotterdam — the last 10, AZ Alkmaar — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Sparta Rotterdam

01.11away · FC Groningen3:2
25.10Ajax1:2
17.10Willem II3:2
10.10away · Go Ahead Eagles3:3
19.09SC Heerenveen0:4

AZ Alkmaar

31.10away · Ajax0:1
25.10FC Twente0:2
22.10away · Ararat Armenia4:0
18.10away · Cambuur2:2
15.10Hapoel Beer Sheva2:1

Head to head

22.02.2026AZ Alkmaar — Sparta Rotterdam3:1
02.11.2025Sparta Rotterdam — AZ Alkmaar0:1
26.01.2025AZ Alkmaar — Sparta Rotterdam1:2
24.11.2024Sparta Rotterdam — AZ Alkmaar1:2
02.03.2024Sparta Rotterdam — AZ Alkmaar1:1

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
4	FC Twente	11	7	2	2	28–10	+18	23
5	AZ Alkmaar	11	6	2	3	20–13	+7	20
6	Fortuna Sittard	11	5	4	2	18–18	0	19
10	Go Ahead Eagles	11	3	5	3	23–27	-4	14
11	Sparta Rotterdam	11	3	3	5	20–26	-6	12
12	FC Utrecht	11	3	3	5	19–31	-12	12

Season 2026/27

Full table

Eredivisie on the same day

14:15
FC TwenteWillem IIpreliminary
9083
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.9
16:30
AjaxADO Den Haagpreliminary
74179
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
18:45
Go Ahead EaglesFortuna Sittardpreliminary
602317
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →