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Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 13 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Go Ahead Eagles — Fortuna Sittard

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Model prediction for 22 November

Go Ahead Eagles60%
Draw23%
Fortuna Sittard17%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Go Ahead Eagles are clear favourites: 60% against 17% for the opponent, draw 23%.

3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 63%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Go Ahead Eagles are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
  • In recent matches the betting market rated Go Ahead Eagles higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

  • League table: Go Ahead Eagles — No. 10, 14 pts; Fortuna Sittard — No. 6, 19 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
  • Fortuna Sittard: unbeaten in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Go Ahead Eagles 1 win, Fortuna Sittard 1, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Go Ahead Eagles — Fortuna Sittard What is xG?2.1–1.2
Go Ahead Eagles not to lose83%
Fortuna Sittard not to lose40%
No draw77%
Both teams to score: yes63%
Both teams to score: no37%
Total over 2.563%
Total under 2.537%

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  • Handicap Go Ahead Eagles
  • Go Ahead Eagles goals
  • Fortuna Sittard goals
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  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatGo Ahead EaglesFortuna Sittard
Goals scored per match1.91.6
Goals conceded per match2.61.6
xG per match1.820.89
Opponents’ xG1.612.23
Shots14.810.0
On target5.44.2
Corners5.72.8
Cards0.71.6
Possession, %5237

Averages per match: Go Ahead Eagles — the last 10, Fortuna Sittard — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Go Ahead Eagles

  • 31.10away · Cambuur0:4
  • 23.10Telstar3:2
  • 18.10away · PEC Zwolle1:4
  • 10.10Sparta Rotterdam3:3
  • 20.09away · NEC Nijmegen1:1

Fortuna Sittard

  • 31.10away · Feyenoord1:1
  • 25.10Excelsior1:0
  • 18.10away · NEC Nijmegen2:2
  • 10.10FC Twente1:1
  • 19.09away · Willem II1:0

Head to head

  • 11.01.2026Go Ahead Eagles — Fortuna Sittard2:2
  • 08.08.2025Fortuna Sittard — Go Ahead Eagles2:2
  • 10.01.2025Fortuna Sittard — Go Ahead Eagles0:3
  • 11.08.2024Go Ahead Eagles — Fortuna Sittard0:2
  • 03.05.2024Fortuna Sittard — Go Ahead Eagles0:0

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
5AZ Alkmaar1162320–13+720
6Fortuna Sittard1154218–18019
7SC Heerenveen1153319–13+618
9Cambuur1143423–22+115
10Go Ahead Eagles1135323–27-414
11Sparta Rotterdam1133520–26-612

Season 2026/27

Full table

Eredivisie on the same day

  • FC TwenteWillem IIpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.9
  • AjaxADO Den Haagpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
  • Sparta RotterdamAZ Alkmaarpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →