Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 13 · Sunday, 22 November, 14:15 (UTC+3)

FC Twente — Willem II

Model prediction for 22 November

FC Twente90%

Draw8%

Willem II3%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

FC Twente are clear favourites: 90% against 3% for the opponent, draw 8%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.

Over 2.5 goals — 73%, both teams to score — 48%.

Why

By the strength ratings FC Twente are about 1.7 goals per match stronger.
FC Twente are 488 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: FC Twente — No. 4, 23 pts; Willem II — No. 18, 2 pts. A gap of 21 pts.
FC Twente: 3 wins in a row; Willem II: 5 defeats in a row.
Last 2 meetings: FC Twente 2 wins, Willem II 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: FC Twente — Willem II What is xG?		3.2–0.7
FC Twente not to lose		97%
Willem II not to lose		10%
No draw		92%
Both teams to score: yes		48%
Both teams to score: no		52%
Total over 2.5		73%
Total under 2.5		27%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap FC Twente
FC Twente goals
Willem II goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	FC Twente	Willem II
Goals scored per match	2.6	0.9
Goals conceded per match	0.8	3.5
xG per match	2.80	1.22
Opponents’ xG	0.74	2.36
Shots	21.3	10.8
On target	7.4	2.7
Corners	6.7	4.7
Cards	1.1	1.5
Possession, %	61	42

Averages per match: FC Twente — the last 10, Willem II — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

FC Twente

01.11away · Excelsior9:0
25.10away · AZ Alkmaar2:0
22.10away · Lincoln Red Imps FC4:1
18.10FC Utrecht1:2
15.10Thun1:0

Willem II

31.10away · PSV Eindhoven0:7
24.10Cambuur1:6
17.10away · Sparta Rotterdam2:3
11.10away · FC Utrecht1:3
19.09Fortuna Sittard0:1

Head to head

12.01.2025FC Twente — Willem II6:2
02.11.2024Willem II — FC Twente0:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
3, Europa League or Conference League	PSV Eindhoven	11	7	2	2	35–13	+22	23
4	FC Twente	11	7	2	2	28–10	+18	23
5	AZ Alkmaar	11	6	2	3	20–13	+7	20
17, Relegation	ADO Den Haag	11	1	3	7	13–24	-11	6
18, Relegation	Willem II	11	0	2	9	10–39	-29	2

Season 2026/27

Full table

Eredivisie on the same day

16:30
AjaxADO Den Haagpreliminary
74179
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
16:30
Sparta RotterdamAZ Alkmaarpreliminary
212753
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2
18:45
Go Ahead EaglesFortuna Sittardpreliminary
602317
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 90% will not happen in roughly 10 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →