UEFA Conference League, round 2 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Ajax — Atalanta
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Ajax 40%, Atalanta 34%, draw 27%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ajax — Atalanta What is xG? | 1.4–1.3 | |
| Ajax not to lose | 66% | |
| Atalanta not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Ajax
- Ajax goals
- Atalanta goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10NEC Nijmegen1:1
- 19.09Excelsior2:2
- 15.09Willem II5:1
- 12.09away · Fortuna Sittard5:1
- 05.09PSV Eindhoven1:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Conference League on the same day
- Kairat AlmatyPanathinaikospreliminary4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- FK Crvena ZvezdaFC Københavnpreliminary3527382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- Pafos FCRiga FCpreliminary5324221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- GetafeLuganopreliminary3727372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- TrabzonsporHeart of Midlothianpreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- JablonecBrighton & Hove Albionpreliminary917742The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.3
- NordsjællandCSKA Sofiapreliminary6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- Inter Club d'EscaldesUniversitatea Craiovapreliminary4426301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →