Russian Premier League, round 15 · Saturday, 21 November, 15:15 (UTC+3)

Akron Togliatti — Fakel

Model prediction for 21 November

Akron Togliatti41%

Draw33%

Fakel26%

Model estimate at 08:25 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Akron Togliatti are slightly stronger: 41% against 26%, draw 33%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 50%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Akron Togliatti are 189 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Akron Togliatti — No. 12, 12 pts; Fakel — No. 16, 6 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
Last 4 meetings: Akron Togliatti 4 wins, Fakel 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Akron Togliatti — Fakel What is xG?		1.3–1.0
Akron Togliatti not to lose		74%
Fakel not to lose		59%
No draw		67%
Both teams to score: yes		50%
Both teams to score: no		50%
Total over 2.5		42%
Total under 2.5		58%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Akron Togliatti
Akron Togliatti goals
Fakel goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Akron Togliatti	Fakel
Goals scored per match	1.5	0.5
Goals conceded per match	1.6	1.6
xG per match	0.98	0.75
Opponents’ xG	1.39	1.66
Shots	12.4	9.8
On target	4.0	2.2
Corners	3.8	3.8
Cards	3.2	2.3
Possession, %	54	46

Averages per match: Akron Togliatti — the last 10, Fakel — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Akron Togliatti

01.11away · Baltika1:2
28.10away · FC Rostov1:6
24.10Dinamo Moscow3:1
17.10away · Dynamo Makhachkala1:1
13.10away · Lokomotiv Moscow1:1

Fakel

31.10away · Rubin Kazan0:1
27.10FK Akhmat0:0
24.10Rodina0:1
17.10away · Krylya Sovetov Samara2:1
13.10away · FC Krasnodar2:0

Head to head

13.04.2025Akron Togliatti — Fakel1:0
18.09.2024Akron Togliatti — Fakel2:0
15.08.2024Fakel — Akron Togliatti1:2
27.07.2024Fakel — Akron Togliatti0:2

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
11	Dynamo Makhachkala	13	4	1	8	16–26	-10	13
12	Akron Togliatti	13	2	6	5	16–23	-7	12
13, Relegation play-off	Rodina	13	3	3	7	15–28	-13	12
15, Relegation	FK Akhmat	13	2	5	6	15–19	-4	11
16, Relegation	Fakel	13	1	3	9	8–21	-13	6

Season 2026/27

Full table

Russian Premier League on the same day

13:00
FC OrenburgBaltikapreliminary
263440
XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.2
17:30
Rubin KazanZenit St. Petersburgpreliminary
132760
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
19:45
CSKA MoscowFK Akhmatpreliminary
522919
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →