Russian Premier League, round 15 · Saturday, 21 November, 19:45 (UTC+3)

CSKA Moscow — FK Akhmat

Model prediction for 21 November

CSKA Moscow52%

Draw29%

FK Akhmat19%

Model estimate at 08:25 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

CSKA Moscow are clear favourites: 52% against 19% for the opponent, draw 29%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

By the strength ratings CSKA Moscow are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
CSKA Moscow are 260 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: CSKA Moscow — No. 4, 26 pts; FK Akhmat — No. 15, 11 pts. A gap of 15 pts.
FK Akhmat: winless in 5.
Last 5 meetings: CSKA Moscow 3 wins, FK Akhmat 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: CSKA Moscow — FK Akhmat What is xG?		1.6–0.9
CSKA Moscow not to lose		81%
FK Akhmat not to lose		48%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		52%
Both teams to score: no		48%
Total over 2.5		46%
Total under 2.5		54%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow goals
FK Akhmat goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	CSKA Moscow	FK Akhmat
Goals scored per match	1.8	1.3
Goals conceded per match	1.0	1.6
xG per match	1.75	1.01
Opponents’ xG	1.56	1.27
Shots	16.0	13.4
On target	5.9	3.5
Corners	4.9	4.6
Cards	2.7	2.9
Possession, %	49	50

Averages per match: CSKA Moscow — the last 10, FK Akhmat — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

CSKA Moscow

01.11away · FC Orenburg0:0
29.10Lokomotiv Moscow3:1
25.10Spartak Moscow2:0
18.10away · Dinamo Moscow1:3
14.10FC Rostov4:0

FK Akhmat

31.10away · Dinamo Moscow0:2
27.10away · Fakel0:0
23.10FC Orenburg0:1
18.10away · Zenit St. Petersburg2:3
14.10Dinamo Moscow1:2

Head to head

01.03.2026FK Akhmat — CSKA Moscow1:0
27.07.2025CSKA Moscow — FK Akhmat2:1
04.05.2025FK Akhmat — CSKA Moscow1:1
22.10.2024CSKA Moscow — FK Akhmat1:0
28.09.2024CSKA Moscow — FK Akhmat3:0

Full record: 22 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
3	Spartak Moscow	13	8	2	3	25–10	+15	26
4	CSKA Moscow	13	7	5	1	21–12	+9	26
5	FC Krasnodar	13	6	5	2	21–16	+5	23
14, Relegation play-off	Lokomotiv Moscow	13	2	5	6	16–20	-4	11
15, Relegation	FK Akhmat	13	2	5	6	15–19	-4	11
16, Relegation	Fakel	13	1	3	9	8–21	-13	6

Season 2026/27

Full table

Russian Premier League on the same day

13:00
FC OrenburgBaltikapreliminary
263440
XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.2
15:15
Akron TogliattiFakelpreliminary
413326
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
17:30
Rubin KazanZenit St. Petersburgpreliminary
132760
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →