Russian Premier League, round 15 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
FC Orenburg — Baltika
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Baltika are slightly stronger: 40% against 26%, draw 34%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Baltika are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Baltika higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: FC Orenburg — No. 8, 17 pts; Baltika — No. 7, 17 pts.
- FC Orenburg: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 4 meetings: FC Orenburg 1 win, Baltika 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Orenburg — Baltika What is xG? | 1.0–1.3 | |
| FC Orenburg not to lose | 60% | |
| Baltika not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 40% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 60% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Orenburg
- FC Orenburg goals
- Baltika goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | FC Orenburg | Baltika |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 1.51 | 1.26 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.43 | 0.82 |
| Shots | 13.7 | 13.3 |
| On target | 5.0 | 4.5 |
| Corners | 3.5 | 5.5 |
| Cards | 4.2 | 2.4 |
| Possession, % | 38 | 43 |
Form
- 01.11CSKA Moscow0:0
- 28.10Rodina2:1
- 23.10away · FK Akhmat1:0
- 19.10away · Rodina2:2
- 15.10away · Rubin Kazan4:1
- 01.11Akron Togliatti2:1
- 29.10Zenit St. Petersburg2:3
- 24.10away · FC Krasnodar1:1
- 18.10FC Rostov0:0
- 14.10away · Krylya Sovetov Samara2:0
Head to head
- 22.11.2025FC Orenburg — Baltika0:0
- 03.08.2025Baltika — FC Orenburg3:2
- 10.03.2024FC Orenburg — Baltika1:0
- 07.10.2023Baltika — FC Orenburg1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Rostov | 13 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Baltika | 13 | 4 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 | FC Orenburg | 13 | 3 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 | Krylya Sovetov Samara | 13 | 3 | -3 | 15 |
Russian Premier League on the same day
- Akron TogliattiFakelpreliminary4133261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
- Rubin KazanZenit St. Petersburgpreliminary1327602The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
- CSKA MoscowFK Akhmatpreliminary5229191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →