Russian Premier League, round 15 · Saturday, 21 November, 17:30 (UTC+3)

Rubin Kazan — Zenit St. Petersburg

Model prediction for 21 November

Rubin Kazan13%

Draw27%

Zenit St. Petersburg60%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Zenit St. Petersburg are clear favourites: 60% against 13% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 45%.

Why

By the strength ratings Zenit St. Petersburg are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Zenit St. Petersburg are 187 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Rubin Kazan — No. 10, 15 pts; Zenit St. Petersburg — No. 1, 30 pts. A gap of 15 pts.
Zenit St. Petersburg: 5 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Rubin Kazan 0 wins, Zenit St. Petersburg 4, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Rubin Kazan — Zenit St. Petersburg What is xG?		0.7–1.7
Rubin Kazan not to lose		40%
Zenit St. Petersburg not to lose		87%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		45%
Both teams to score: no		55%
Total over 2.5		43%
Total under 2.5		57%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Rubin Kazan
Rubin Kazan goals
Zenit St. Petersburg goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Rubin Kazan	Zenit St. Petersburg
Goals scored per match	0.9	2.1
Goals conceded per match	1.3	1.1
xG per match	1.02	1.86
Opponents’ xG	1.39	1.09
Shots	10.1	15.1
On target	3.0	5.8
Corners	3.3	5.7
Cards	2.2	2.3
Possession, %	49	58

Averages per match: Rubin Kazan — the last 10, Zenit St. Petersburg — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Rubin Kazan

31.10Fakel1:0
28.10away · Spartak Moscow0:1
24.10Krylya Sovetov Samara0:2
18.10away · Spartak Moscow0:4
15.10FC Orenburg1:4

Zenit St. Petersburg

02.11away · Krylya Sovetov Samara3:0
29.10away · Baltika3:2
25.10Dynamo Makhachkala2:0
18.10FK Akhmat3:2
14.10away · Dynamo Makhachkala2:1

Head to head

30.11.2025Zenit St. Petersburg — Rubin Kazan1:0
30.09.2025Rubin Kazan — Zenit St. Petersburg0:1
12.08.2025Zenit St. Petersburg — Rubin Kazan3:0
27.07.2025Rubin Kazan — Zenit St. Petersburg2:2
30.03.2025Zenit St. Petersburg — Rubin Kazan4:0

Full record: 22 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1	Zenit St. Petersburg	13	10	0	3	30–13	+17	30
2	Dinamo Moscow	13	9	1	3	21–12	+9	28
9	Krylya Sovetov Samara	13	3	6	4	17–20	-3	15
10	Rubin Kazan	13	3	6	4	13–18	-5	15
11	Dynamo Makhachkala	13	4	1	8	16–26	-10	13

Season 2026/27

Full table

Russian Premier League on the same day

13:00
FC OrenburgBaltikapreliminary
263440
XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.2
15:15
Akron TogliattiFakelpreliminary
413326
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
19:45
CSKA MoscowFK Akhmatpreliminary
522919
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →