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Belgian Pro League, round 12 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Anderlecht — OH Leuven

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Model prediction for 22 November

Anderlecht63%
Draw23%
OH Leuven14%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Anderlecht are clear favourites: 63% against 14% for the opponent, draw 23%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Anderlecht are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
  • Anderlecht are 219 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • League table: Anderlecht — No. 5, 19 pts; OH Leuven — No. 13, 9 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
  • OH Leuven: unbeaten in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Anderlecht 1 win, OH Leuven 0, 4 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Anderlecht — OH Leuven What is xG?1.9–0.9
Anderlecht not to lose86%
OH Leuven not to lose37%
No draw77%
Both teams to score: yes55%
Both teams to score: no45%
Total over 2.555%
Total under 2.545%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Anderlecht
  • Anderlecht goals
  • OH Leuven goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatAnderlechtOH Leuven
Goals scored per match1.51.0
Goals conceded per match0.91.7
xG per match1.541.38
Opponents’ xG0.991.92
Shots14.715.0
On target5.83.0
Corners5.04.3
Cards2.32.4
Possession, %6046

Averages per match: Anderlecht — the last 10, OH Leuven — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Anderlecht

  • 31.10Westerlo4:1
  • 25.10away · Gent0:4
  • 22.10away · Jagiellonia Białystok3:0
  • 18.10away · Beerschot1:2
  • 15.10away · Dinamo Zagreb0:1

OH Leuven

  • 01.11away · St.Truiden2:1
  • 24.10Lommel2:2
  • 17.10Francs Borains1:0
  • 11.10away · Union St.Gilloise1:1
  • 19.09RAAL La Louvière2:0

Head to head

  • 28.02.2026Anderlecht — OH Leuven5:1
  • 26.09.2025OH Leuven — Anderlecht1:1
  • 01.12.2024OH Leuven — Anderlecht0:0
  • 10.08.2024Anderlecht — OH Leuven1:1
  • 21.01.2024OH Leuven — Anderlecht1:1

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
4, Europa League or Conference LeagueSporting Charleroi1080221–12+924
5Anderlecht1061313–11+219
6Genk1043318–14+415
12SK Beveren1031613–20-710
13OH Leuven1023510–17-79
14KV Mechelen923410–17-79

Season 2026/27

Full table

Belgian Pro League on the same day

  • SK BeverenGentpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
  • KortrijkUnion St.Gilloisepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.7
  • LommelStandard Liègepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →