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Belgian Pro League, round 12 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Kortrijk — Union St.Gilloise

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Model prediction for 22 November

Kortrijk12%
Draw22%
Union St.Gilloise66%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Union St.Gilloise are clear favourites: 66% against 12% for the opponent, draw 22%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 48%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Union St.Gilloise are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
  • Union St.Gilloise are 333 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Kortrijk — No. 18, 4 pts; Union St.Gilloise — No. 2, 26 pts. A gap of 22 pts.
  • Union St.Gilloise: 4 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Kortrijk 0 wins, Union St.Gilloise 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kortrijk — Union St.Gilloise What is xG?0.8–1.9
Kortrijk not to lose34%
Union St.Gilloise not to lose88%
No draw78%
Both teams to score: yes48%
Both teams to score: no52%
Total over 2.554%
Total under 2.546%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Handicap Kortrijk
  • Kortrijk goals
  • Union St.Gilloise goals
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  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatKortrijkUnion St.Gilloise
Goals scored per match0.32.9
Goals conceded per match2.10.7
xG per match1.042.36
Opponents’ xG1.820.92
Shots11.619.6
On target3.08.7
Corners3.65.4
Cards2.21.8
Possession, %4551

Averages per match: Kortrijk — the last 9, Union St.Gilloise — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Kortrijk

  • 31.10away · Standard Liège1:1
  • 10.10away · Genk0:3
  • 20.09SK Beveren1:0
  • 13.09away · RAAL La Louvière0:3
  • 06.09Zulte Waregem0:2

Union St.Gilloise

  • 31.10away · SK Beveren2:1
  • 25.10Cercle Brugge5:2
  • 22.10Hapoel Beer Sheva4:0
  • 18.10KFC Nijlen3:0
  • 15.10Real Sociedad1:1

Head to head

  • 09.02.2025Kortrijk — Union St.Gilloise1:2
  • 29.09.2024Union St.Gilloise — Kortrijk3:0
  • 18.02.2024Kortrijk — Union St.Gilloise1:3
  • 12.11.2023Union St.Gilloise — Kortrijk3:0
  • 23.04.2023Kortrijk — Union St.Gilloise2:4

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Champions LeagueClub Brugge1090126–8+1827
2, Champions League qualifyingUnion St.Gilloise1082029–7+2226
3, Europa League or Conference LeagueGent1081119–6+1325
17, RelegationCercle Brugge1013613–22-96
18, RelegationKortrijk91173–19-164

Season 2026/27

Full table

Belgian Pro League on the same day

  • SK BeverenGentpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
  • AnderlechtOH Leuvenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.9
  • LommelStandard Liègepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →