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Belgian Pro League, round 12 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Lommel — Standard Liège

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Model prediction for 22 November

Lommel32%
Draw29%
Standard Liège39%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Standard Liège are slightly stronger: 39% against 32%, draw 29%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 60%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • Lommel are 125 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • League table: Lommel — No. 7, 15 pts; Standard Liège — No. 9, 12 pts. A gap of 3 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lommel — Standard Liège What is xG?1.3–1.5
Lommel not to lose61%
Standard Liège not to lose68%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes60%
Both teams to score: no40%
Total over 2.555%
Total under 2.545%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Lommel
  • Lommel goals
  • Standard Liège goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatLommelStandard Liège
Goals scored per match1.31.5
Goals conceded per match1.11.6
xG per match1.051.87
Opponents’ xG1.801.76
Shots11.914.3
On target3.54.8
Corners3.86.1
Cards1.01.6
Possession, %4751

Averages per match: Lommel — the last 10, Standard Liège — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Lommel

  • 01.11Gent2:0
  • 24.10away · OH Leuven2:2
  • 18.10away · St.Truiden1:4
  • 09.10away · SK Beveren3:1
  • 19.09KV Mechelen0:0

Standard Liège

  • 31.10Kortrijk1:1
  • 25.10away · Genk1:2
  • 16.10FCV Dender EH2:0
  • 11.10Sporting Charleroi0:1
  • 18.09away · Gent1:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
6Genk1043318–14+415
7Lommel1043313–11+215
8Westerlo1042425–25014
9Standard Liège1033415–16-112
10Zulte Waregem1032512–16-411

Season 2026/27

Full table

Belgian Pro League on the same day

  • SK BeverenGentpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
  • KortrijkUnion St.Gilloisepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.7
  • AnderlechtOH Leuvenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →