Turkish Cup, round 3 · Wednesday, 28 October, (UTC+3) · 15 Temmuz Milli Birlik Stadyumu
Ankaraspor — Kırklarelispor
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In short
Final score 3:2 (90 min 2:2): the model's most likely outcome, Ankaraspor to win (60%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 60% fails in about 40 matches out of 100 on average.
Ankaraspor are clear favourites: 60% against 18% for the opponent, draw 23%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Ankaraspor are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Ankaraspor are 280 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ankaraspor — Kırklarelispor What is xG? | 1.9–1.0 | |
| Ankaraspor not to lose | 82% | |
| Kırklarelispor not to lose | 40% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Ankaraspor
- Ankaraspor goals
- Kırklarelispor goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Match events
- 9′Batuhan Adiguzel · Ankaraspor1:0
- 16′İsmai̇l Yahşi̇ · Ankaraspor2:0
- 82′Ibrahim Köse · Kırklarelispor2:1
- 89′Anıl Koç · Kırklarelispor2:2
- 103′<TBD> · Ankaraspor3:2
Form
- 25.02Kocaelispor1:3
- 04.02away · Beşiktaş0:2
- 08.01Bodrum FK4:4
- 19.12Adana Demirspor2:0
- 04.12away · Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu2:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Turkish Cup on the same day
- 2024572The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.2.9
- 3827351The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 4027331The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 3527392The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 3427392The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 3827351The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- 3727361The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- 3427392The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →