Turkish Cup, round 3 · Wednesday, 28 October, (UTC+3)
Inegölspor — Sebat Gençlik Spor
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1:4Came true
In short
Final score 1:4: the model's most likely outcome, Sebat Gençlik Spor to win (39%), came true.
Evenly matched: Inegölspor 35%, Sebat Gençlik Spor 39%, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Inegölspor — Sebat Gençlik Spor What is xG? | 1.3–1.4 | |
| Inegölspor not to lose | 61% | |
| Sebat Gençlik Spor not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Inegölspor
- Inegölspor goals
- Sebat Gençlik Spor goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Match events
- 2′Günes Güventürk · Sebat Gençlik Spor0:1
- 18′Emircan Altıntaş · Inegölspor1:1
- 32′Thierry Darnel Karadeniz · Sebat Gençlik Spor1:2
- 39′Thierry Darnel Karadeniz · Sebat Gençlik Spor1:3
- 68′Günes Güventürk · Sebat Gençlik Spor1:4
Form
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Turkish Cup on the same day
- 2024572The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.2.9
- 3827351The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 4027331The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 3427392The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 3827351The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- AnkarasporKırklarelisporfinal 3:2 (90 min 2:2)6023181The most likely outcome did not happen: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:0.2.9
- 3727361The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- 3427392The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →