Belarusian Premier League · Friday, 30 October, 18:00 (UTC+3) · Haradski Stadium

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — BATE

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Model prediction and result

1:0Missed

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk28%

Draw26%

BATE46%

Model estimate at 17:26 (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, BATE to win (46%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 46% fails in about 54 matches out of 100 on average.

BATE are slightly stronger: 46% against 28%, draw 26%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 48%.

Why

By the strength ratings BATE are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
In recent matches the betting market rated BATE higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk: winless in 5; BATE: 3 defeats in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 2 wins, BATE 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — BATE What is xG?		1.0–1.3
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk not to lose		54%
BATE not to lose		72%
No draw		74%
Both teams to score: yes		48%
Both teams to score: no		52%
Total over 2.5		44%
Total under 2.5		56%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk goals
BATE goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Match events

17′Zaleskiy A. · Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
40′Antilevskiy D. · Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1:0
44′Tsallagov D. · Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
61′Ermolin R. · Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
86′Kovalev Y. · BATE
96′Kaplenko K. · BATE

Substitutions (10)

46′Ermolin R. ↔ Volskiy D. · Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
46′Badoev K. ↔ Tsallagov D. · Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
46′Kaplenko K. ↔ Titov M. · BATE
46′Bochko N. ↔ Angban V. · BATE
56′Bozhko E. ↔ Matveev M. · Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
74′Rusakov E. ↔ Mikhnyuk I. · BATE
74′Khramtsevich Y. ↔ Puerto E. · BATE
75′Tkachenko V. ↔ Vasilyev V. · Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
87′Moussakhanian H. ↔ Yatskevich V. · BATE
90′Kaplenko N. ↔ Gorbachik V. · Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Match statistics

Arsenal DzerzhinskBATE

40Possession, %60
5Shots18
1On target5
3Corners6
19Fouls17
2Offsides2
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Lutik D.
Oreshkevich I.
Volskiy D.
Zaleskiy A.
GSoroko A.
Vasilyev V.
Antilevskiy D.
Gorbachik V.
Polyakov D.
Matveev M.
Tsallagov D.

BATE

Varaksa V.
Dubovskiy P.
Kress E.
Sakuta M.
GSkopets A.
Yatskevich V.
Mikhnyuk I.
Angban V.
Kovalev Y.
Puerto E.
Titov M.

Form

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

25.10Dnepr Mogilev0:0
19.10away · Din. Minsk0:2
09.10Dynamo Brest0:1
18.09away · ML Vitebsk1:5
12.09Baranovici0:0

BATE

24.10Belshina0:1
18.10away · Dnepr Mogilev1:2
14.10Neman0:2
10.10Slavia Mozyr2:1
19.09away · Din. Minsk0:2

Head to head

21.06.2026BATE — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk2:3
21.09.2025BATE — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk0:0
02.05.2025Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — BATE0:1
20.10.2024BATE — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk3:2
26.05.2024Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — BATE2:0

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
11	Baranovici	27	8	7	12	30–43	-13	31
12	Arsenal Dzerzhinsk	27	6	9	12	25–44	-19	27
13	Belshina	27	6	6	15	28–50	-22	24
14, Relegation play-off	Dnepr Mogilev	27	4	11	12	26–41	-15	23
15, Relegation	BATE	27	4	9	14	19–34	-15	21
16, Relegation	Naftan	27	4	5	18	24–65	-41	17

Season 2026

Full table

Next matches

18:00
FC GomelArsenal Dzerzhinsk6 November · Belarusian Premier League
612415
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
17:00
BATEZhodino7 November · Belarusian Premier League
352738
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →