UEFA Conference League, round 3 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Atalanta — Kairat Almaty
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Atalanta are clear favourites: 80% against 7% for the opponent, draw 13%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- Atalanta's starting XI is worth €200m, Kairat Almaty's €3m (Transfermarkt).
- By the strength ratings Atalanta are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Atalanta — No. 4, 3 pts; Kairat Almaty — No. 15, 1 pt. A gap of 2 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atalanta — Kairat Almaty What is xG? | 2.8–0.7 | |
| Atalanta not to lose | 93% | |
| Kairat Almaty not to lose | 20% | |
| No draw | 87% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 68% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 32% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atalanta
- Atalanta goals
- Kairat Almaty goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 15.10away · Riga FC1:1
- 10.10Zhetysu Taldykorgan1:0
- 17.09away · FC Astana0:1
- 13.09Tobol Kostanay1:4
- 09.09Zhenis3:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Straight to the round of 16 | Trabzonspor | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 4, Straight to the round of 16 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 5, Straight to the round of 16 | Mjällby | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 14, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | FC Twente | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Kairat Almaty | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Conference League on the same day
- FC MidtjyllandAjaxpreliminary3926351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- FK Crvena ZvezdaInter Club d'Escaldespreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- KuPSGentpreliminary2023562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
- Lincoln Red Imps FCHajduk Splitpreliminary3126432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- TrabzonsporFreiburgpreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- AGFBragapreliminary3526392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- ThunHeart of Midlothianpreliminary3326412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- MjällbyBorac Banja Lukapreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 80% will not happen in roughly 20 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →