Brazilian Serie A, round 34 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Athletico Paranaense — Vasco da Gama
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Athletico Paranaense are slightly stronger: 40% against 32%, draw 28%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Athletico Paranaense are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- Athletico Paranaense are 187 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Athletico Paranaense — No. 3, 53 pts; Vasco da Gama — No. 14, 35 pts. A gap of 18 pts.
- Athletico Paranaense: unbeaten in 4; Vasco da Gama: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Athletico Paranaense 2 wins, Vasco da Gama 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Athletico Paranaense — Vasco da Gama What is xG? | 1.6–1.3 | |
| Athletico Paranaense not to lose | 68% | |
| Vasco da Gama not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Athletico Paranaense
- Athletico Paranaense goals
- Vasco da Gama goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 13.10away · Chapecoense4:1
- 09.10Atlético-MG2:2
- 21.09Bahia2:1
- 12.09away · Coritiba3:3
- 06.09away · Cruzeiro1:3
- 14.10away · Boca Juniors1:0
- 11.10Remo0:0
- 08.10away · Botafogo2:1
- 20.09Coritiba5:0
- 16.09Santa Fe2:0
Head to head
- 11.05.2026Vasco da Gama — Athletico Paranaense1:0
- 12.09.2024Athletico Paranaense — Vasco da Gama2:1
- 30.08.2024Vasco da Gama — Athletico Paranaense2:1
- 27.08.2024Vasco da Gama — Athletico Paranaense2:1
- 05.05.2024Athletico Paranaense — Vasco da Gama1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Copa Libertadores | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | +30 | 63 |
| 3, Copa Libertadores | Athletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | +14 | 53 |
| 4, Copa Libertadores | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | +11 | 51 |
| 13 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | -11 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | -10 | 33 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- FlamengoGrêmiopreliminary831241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.1
- BotafogoAtlético-MGpreliminary4128311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- São PauloCorinthianspreliminary4729241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →