Liga MX (Mexico), round 14 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK

Atlante — Atlético de San Luis

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Model prediction for 24 October

Atlante46%
Draw28%
Atlético de San Luis26%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Atlante are slightly stronger: 46% against 26%, draw 28%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 61%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Atlante are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Atlante — Atlético de San Luis What is xG?1.7–1.3
Atlante not to lose74%
Atlético de San Luis not to lose54%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes61%
Both teams to score: no39%
Total over 2.557%
Total under 2.543%

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  • Handicap Atlante
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  • Atlético de San Luis goals
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Form

Atlante

  • 11.10away · Querétaro FC0:2
  • 26.09Monterrey4:2
  • 19.09away · Puebla1:1
  • 12.09Pachuca0:3
  • 06.09away · Atlas1:1

Atlético de San Luis

  • 12.10Santos Laguna1:2
  • 27.09away · Pumas3:2
  • 20.09Necaxa3:1
  • 15.09away · León0:2
  • 06.09Chivas0:3

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026 (Apertura)
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
14Santos Laguna1141612–16-413
15Atlético de San Luis1133515–20-512
16Atlante1125412–17-511
17Necaxa1123615–23-89

Season 2026 (Apertura)

Full table

Liga MX on the same day

  • NecaxaFC Juárezpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →