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Liga de Expansion MX, round 15 · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Guaycura

Atlético La Paz — Dorados

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Model prediction and result

3:0Came true
Atlético La Paz76%
Draw15%
Dorados9%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, Atlético La Paz to win (76%), came true.

Atlético La Paz are clear favourites: 76% against 9% for the opponent, draw 15%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.7 in total, against a competition average of 2.9.

Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Atlético La Paz are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
  • Atlético La Paz are 295 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Atlético La Paz 2 wins, Dorados 1, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Atlético La Paz — Dorados What is xG?2.8–0.9
Atlético La Paz not to lose91%
Dorados not to lose24%
No draw85%
Both teams to score: yes57%
Both teams to score: no43%
Total over 2.566%
Total under 2.534%

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  • Handicap Atlético La Paz
  • Atlético La Paz goals
  • Dorados goals
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  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 6′José Castro · Dorados
  2. 22′Martín Barragán · Atlético La Paz1:0
  3. 24′Abraham Flores · Dorados
  4. 29′Willian González · Dorados
  5. 29′Johan Alonzo · Atlético La Paz
  6. 47′Óscar Millán · Atlético La Paz2:0
  7. 72′Brandon Ordorica · Dorados
  8. 74′Jordi Ferrer · Atlético La Paz3:0
  9. 80′Israel Larios · Atlético La Paz
  10. 82′Juan Daccarett · Atlético La Paz
  11. 87′Daniel Alvarado · Atlético La Paz
Substitutions (10)
  1. 10′Jonathan Vaal ↔ Jaime Álvarez · Dorados
  2. 46′Brandon Ordorica ↔ Leonardo Vargas · Dorados
  3. 46′Sebastián Cervantes ↔ Abraham Flores · Dorados
  4. 46′Jordi Ferrer ↔ Ulíses Jaimes · Atlético La Paz
  5. 66′Israel Larios ↔ Óscar Millán · Atlético La Paz
  6. 66′Ricardo Rentería ↔ Martín Barragán · Atlético La Paz
  7. 70′Arath Egaña ↔ Diego García · Dorados
  8. 75′Daniel Alvarado ↔ Johan Alonzo · Atlético La Paz
  9. 75′Daniel Hernández ↔ Ángel Robles · Atlético La Paz
  10. 83′Christian Leyva ↔ Willian González · Dorados

Match statistics

Atlético La PazDorados
  • 1.77Expected goals (xG)0.71
  • 67Possession, %33
  • 22Shots12
  • 7On target2
  • 1Big chances0
  • 9Corners3
  • 9Fouls9
  • 1Offsides1
  • 4Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards1

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Atlético La Paz

  1. GKGil Alcalá7.7
  2. DFHoracio Torres8.0
  3. DFJuan Daccarett7.1
  4. DFSergio Vázquez7.9
  5. MFÁngel Robles75′7.3
  6. MFMarco García8.2
  7. MFJohan Alonzo75′7.9
  8. MFUlíses Jaimes45′6.6
  9. MFÉdgar Alaffita8.8
  10. MFÓscar Millán66′8.5
  11. FWMartín Barragán (C)66′7.7
Came on (5)
  1. FWIsrael Larios24′6.6
  2. MFDaniel Alvarado15′6.2
  3. FWRicardo Rentería24′6.2
  4. MFDaniel Hernández15′6.4
  5. FWJordi Ferrer45′7.7

Dorados

  1. GKJosé Castro6′
  2. DFChristopher Castro6.4
  3. DFAbraham Flores45′6.3
  4. DFWillian González83′5.8
  5. DFDiego García70′6.0
  6. MFJaime Álvarez10′6.0
  7. MFGermán Padilla7.2
  8. MFFrancisco Contreras (C)7.0
  9. MFMarcos Flores6.1
  10. FWLeonardo Vargas45′5.7
  11. FWBenjamín Sánchez6.7
Came on (5)
  1. FWChristian Leyva7′
  2. FWArath Egaña20′5.1
  3. DFSebastián Cervantes45′6.8
  4. MFBrandon Ordorica45′6.7
  5. GKJonathan Vaal80′5.3

Form

Atlético La Paz

  • 25.10away · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero3:1
  • 17.10Tlaxcala FC2:2
  • 10.10away · Tapatío4:2
  • 03.10Venados FC1:2
  • 25.09away · Alebrijes Oaxaca3:1

Dorados

  • 25.10Piratas0:5
  • 17.10away · Correcaminos de la UAT2:1
  • 11.10Cruz Azul Hidalgo1:3
  • 04.10away · Leones Negros3:6
  • 27.09Alacranes de Durango0:1

Head to head

  • 08.02.2026Dorados — Atlético La Paz2:2
  • 30.08.2025Atlético La Paz — Dorados3:1
  • 12.04.2025Atlético La Paz — Dorados0:0
  • 27.10.2024Dorados — Atlético La Paz4:0
  • 23.02.2024Atlético La Paz — Dorados1:0

Full record: 7 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1Atlético La Paz1593336–18+1830
2Leones Negros1593334–20+1430
12Correcaminos de la UAT1545621–24-317
13Dorados1544723–32-916
14Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1543815–25-1015

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next match

Liga de Expansion MX on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 76% will not happen in roughly 24 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →