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Liga de Expansion MX, round 15 · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Olímpico Ing. Marte R. Gómez

Correcaminos de la UAT — Venados FC

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Model prediction and result

0:0Missed
Correcaminos de la UAT31%
Draw27%
Venados FC42%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Venados FC to win (42%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 42% fails in about 58 matches out of 100 on average.

Venados FC are slightly stronger: 42% against 31%, draw 27%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.9.

Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 69%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Venados FC are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
  • Venados FC are 72 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Correcaminos de la UAT: 3 defeats in a row; Venados FC: unbeaten in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Correcaminos de la UAT 2 wins, Venados FC 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Correcaminos de la UAT — Venados FC What is xG?1.6–1.9
Correcaminos de la UAT not to lose58%
Venados FC not to lose69%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes69%
Both teams to score: no31%
Total over 2.564%
Total under 2.536%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Correcaminos de la UAT
  • Correcaminos de la UAT goals
  • Venados FC goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 8′Brandón Ochoa · Venados FC
  2. 25′Walter Ortega · Correcaminos de la UAT
  3. 38′Oliver Pérez · Correcaminos de la UAT
  4. 78′Santiago Naveda · Venados FC
  5. 93′Jesús Moreno · Venados FC
Substitutions (10)
  1. 57′Damián Torres ↔ Héctor Uribe · Correcaminos de la UAT
  2. 57′Tomás Sandoval ↔ Duván Mina · Correcaminos de la UAT
  3. 63′Santiago Benitez ↔ Sleyther Lora · Venados FC
  4. 68′Andrés Catalán ↔ Alex Monárrez · Correcaminos de la UAT
  5. 71′Luis Macías ↔ Brandón Ochoa · Venados FC
  6. 77′Marco Montelongo ↔ Paul Kilani · Venados FC
  7. 77′Jardel Cejudo ↔ Santiago Montiel · Venados FC
  8. 77′Sebastian Saucedo ↔ Mauricio Aguilar · Venados FC
  9. 77′Rafael Arce ↔ Alan Di Pippa · Correcaminos de la UAT
  10. 77′Wiliam Guzmán ↔ Bryan Mendoza · Correcaminos de la UAT

Match statistics

Correcaminos de la UATVenados FC
  • 0.91Expected goals (xG)1.18
  • 68Possession, %32
  • 11Shots15
  • 4On target2
  • 2Big chances1
  • 10Corners5
  • 12Fouls12
  • 3Offsides2
  • 2Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Correcaminos de la UAT

  1. GKEmiliano Pérez7.3
  2. DFAlan Di Pippa77′7.2
  3. DFOliver Pérez7.2
  4. DFAlan Ruiz7.4
  5. DFAlex Monárrez68′7.2
  6. MFHéctor Uribe57′6.6
  7. MFDuván Mina57′6.9
  8. MFEmanuel Torres (C)7.7
  9. MFWalter Ortega7.2
  10. FWBryan Mendoza77′5.9
  11. FWOmar Islas6.2
Came on (5)
  1. FWTomás Sandoval33′6.2
  2. DFAndrés Catalán22′6.6
  3. MFDamián Torres33′6.6
  4. FWWiliam Guzmán13′6.9
  5. MFRafael Arce13′6.2

Venados FC

  1. GKSantiago Perez8.0
  2. DFAleksandr Lomakin7.2
  3. DFMauricio Aguilar77′7.1
  4. DFJesús Moreno7.7
  5. DFSantiago Montiel77′7.4
  6. MFSantiago Naveda6.3
  7. MFPaul Kilani77′6.6
  8. MFBrandón Ochoa71′7.4
  9. FWDuilio Tejeda7.4
  10. FWSleyther Lora (C)63′6.8
  11. FWMáximo Torres7.0
Came on (5)
  1. DFSebastian Saucedo13′6.1
  2. MFLuis Macías19′6.1
  3. FWJardel Cejudo13′6.0
  4. MFSantiago Benitez27′6.6
  5. MFMarco Montelongo13′6.4

Form

Correcaminos de la UAT

  • 25.10away · Tlaxcala FC0:2
  • 17.10Dorados1:2
  • 09.10away · Alebrijes Oaxaca1:2
  • 03.10Cruz Azul Hidalgo0:0
  • 26.09Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1:0

Venados FC

  • 25.10Alacranes de Durango3:2
  • 18.10away · Cancún FC1:1
  • 11.10Leones Negros1:1
  • 03.10away · Atlético La Paz2:1
  • 27.09Atlético Morelia2:1

Head to head

  • 07.03.2026Venados FC — Correcaminos de la UAT0:1
  • 27.09.2025Correcaminos de la UAT — Venados FC3:6
  • 21.03.2025Correcaminos de la UAT — Venados FC1:1
  • 05.10.2024Venados FC — Correcaminos de la UAT5:1
  • 24.03.2024Correcaminos de la UAT — Venados FC2:1

Full record: 7 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
5Cancún FC1574428–18+1025
6Venados FC1574431–25+625
7Alacranes de Durango1573521–15+624
11Tapatío1553725–28-318
12Correcaminos de la UAT1545621–24-317
13Dorados1544723–32-916

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next match

Liga de Expansion MX on the same day

  • Atlético La PazDorados
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.3.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →