Liga de Expansion MX, playoff · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Atlético La Paz — Tlaxcala FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Atlético La Paz are clear favourites: 60% against 17% for the opponent, draw 22%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.9.
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlético La Paz are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Atlético La Paz are 162 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Atlético La Paz — No. 1, 30 pts; Tlaxcala FC — No. 8, 22 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
- Atlético La Paz: unbeaten in 4; Tlaxcala FC: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Atlético La Paz 2 wins, Tlaxcala FC 0, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético La Paz — Tlaxcala FC What is xG? | 2.2–1.1 | |
| Atlético La Paz not to lose | 83% | |
| Tlaxcala FC not to lose | 40% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atlético La Paz
- Atlético La Paz goals
- Tlaxcala FC goals
- Corners and cards
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Atlético La Paz | Tlaxcala FC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| xG per match | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| Shots | 14.7 | 10.4 |
| On target | 5.7 | 4.1 |
| Corners | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Cards | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| Possession, % | 51 | 45 |
Form
- 31.10Dorados3:0
- 25.10away · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero3:1
- 17.10Tlaxcala FC2:2
- 10.10away · Tapatío4:2
- 03.10Venados FC1:2
- 01.11away · Cruz Azul Hidalgo2:0
- 25.10Correcaminos de la UAT2:0
- 17.10away · Atlético La Paz2:2
- 11.10Piratas4:2
- 04.10away · Atlético Morelia1:1
Head to head
- 17.10.2026Atlético La Paz — Tlaxcala FC2:2
- 08.03.2026Atlético La Paz — Tlaxcala FC2:0
- 28.09.2025Tlaxcala FC — Atlético La Paz3:3
- 11.01.2025Atlético La Paz — Tlaxcala FC4:4
- 28.07.2024Tlaxcala FC — Atlético La Paz0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético La Paz | 15 | 9 | +18 | 30 |
| 2 | Leones Negros | 15 | 9 | +14 | 30 |
| 7 | Alacranes de Durango | 15 | 7 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 | Tlaxcala FC | 15 | 6 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 | Alebrijes Oaxaca | 15 | 7 | -10 | 22 |
Liga de Expansion MX on the same day
- 5226221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- 4929221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →