Liga de Expansion MX, playoff · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Atlético Morelia — Venados FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Atlético Morelia are clear favourites: 52% against 22% for the opponent, draw 26%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlético Morelia are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Atlético Morelia are 75 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Atlético Morelia — No. 3, 26 pts; Venados FC — No. 6, 25 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Venados FC: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Atlético Morelia 2 wins, Venados FC 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético Morelia — Venados FC What is xG? | 1.9–1.2 | |
| Atlético Morelia not to lose | 78% | |
| Venados FC not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atlético Morelia
- Atlético Morelia goals
- Venados FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Atlético Morelia | Venados FC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| xG per match | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| Shots | 12.2 | 15.0 |
| On target | 6.2 | 7.0 |
| Corners | 6.6 | 6.4 |
| Cards | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Possession, % | 53 | 48 |
Form
- 01.11away · Alacranes de Durango1:3
- 26.10away · Tapatío2:1
- 18.10Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1:2
- 10.10away · Tepatitlán FC1:1
- 04.10Tlaxcala FC1:1
- 31.10away · Correcaminos de la UAT0:0
- 25.10Alacranes de Durango3:2
- 18.10away · Cancún FC1:1
- 11.10Leones Negros1:1
- 03.10away · Atlético La Paz2:1
Head to head
- 27.09.2026Venados FC — Atlético Morelia2:1
- 15.02.2026Atlético Morelia — Venados FC2:1
- 05.09.2025Venados FC — Atlético Morelia2:2
- 03.03.2025Atlético Morelia — Venados FC1:0
- 14.09.2024Venados FC — Atlético Morelia2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leones Negros | 15 | 9 | +14 | 30 |
| 3 | Atlético Morelia | 15 | 8 | +7 | 26 |
| 4 | Piratas | 15 | 7 | +12 | 25 |
| 5 | Cancún FC | 15 | 7 | +10 | 25 |
| 6 | Venados FC | 15 | 7 | +6 | 25 |
| 7 | Alacranes de Durango | 15 | 7 | +6 | 24 |
Liga de Expansion MX on the same day
- 6022171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- 4929221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →