Liga de Expansion MX, playoff · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Leones Negros — Alacranes de Durango
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Leones Negros are clear favourites: 49% against 22% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Leones Negros are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Leones Negros are 112 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Leones Negros — No. 2, 30 pts; Alacranes de Durango — No. 7, 24 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Leones Negros — Alacranes de Durango What is xG? | 1.6–1.0 | |
| Leones Negros not to lose | 78% | |
| Alacranes de Durango not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
91 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Leones Negros
- Leones Negros goals
- Alacranes de Durango goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Leones Negros | Alacranes de Durango |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 0.31 | 0.14 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Shots | 13.1 | 9.0 |
| On target | 5.6 | 3.1 |
| Corners | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| Cards | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 49 | 60 |
Form
- 01.11Tepatitlán FC3:1
- 25.10away · Mineros de Zacatecas2:0
- 18.10Alebrijes Oaxaca1:2
- 11.10away · Venados FC1:1
- 04.10Dorados6:3
- 01.11Atlético Morelia3:1
- 25.10away · Venados FC2:3
- 18.10Tapatío5:0
- 11.10away · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero0:0
- 04.10Mineros de Zacatecas4:2
Head to head
- 23.08.2026Alacranes de Durango — Leones Negros1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético La Paz | 15 | 9 | +18 | 30 |
| 2 | Leones Negros | 15 | 9 | +14 | 30 |
| 3 | Atlético Morelia | 15 | 8 | +7 | 26 |
| 6 | Venados FC | 15 | 7 | +6 | 25 |
| 7 | Alacranes de Durango | 15 | 7 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 | Tlaxcala FC | 15 | 6 | +2 | 22 |
Liga de Expansion MX on the same day
- 5226221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- 6022171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →