UEFA Champions League, round 4 · Tuesday, 3 November, MSK
Atlético Madrid — Bayern München
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 3 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Bayern München are clear favourites: 61% against 17% for the opponent, draw 22%.
The model expects few goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bayern München are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético Madrid — Bayern München What is xG? | 1.0–2.0 | |
| Atlético Madrid not to lose | 39% | |
| Bayern München not to lose | 83% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atlético Madrid
- Atlético Madrid goals
- Bayern München goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 13.10Manchester United2:0
- 10.10away · Deportivo Alavés2:1
- 20.09Real Madrid2:1
- 16.09Osasuna4:0
- 13.09away · Real Sociedad3:0
- 13.10away · Viking3:3
- 10.10away · Augsburg2:2
- 18.09Union Berlin7:0
- 13.09away · Elversberg2:1
- 10.09Bodø/Glimt5:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Straight to the round of 16 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 4, Straight to the round of 16 | Bayern München | 2 | 1 | +5 | 4 |
| 5, Straight to the round of 16 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 1 | +5 | 3 |
| 11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 12, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Atlético Madrid | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Champions League on the same day
- Shakhtar DonetskSporting CPpreliminary4026341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- GalatasarayVfB Stuttgartpreliminary4726271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- BarcelonaAston Villapreliminary761681The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- Manchester UnitedRomapreliminary4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- FeyenoordInterpreliminary2726472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- Bodø/GlimtLillepreliminary7118111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- VillarrealParis Saint-Germainpreliminary1923572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- LASKSlovan Bratislavapreliminary7218111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →