Primera Nacional, round 36 · Monday, 2 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Nuevo Monumental
Atlético Rafaela — Patronato de Parana
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In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Atlético Rafaela to win (47%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 47% fails in about 53 matches out of 100 on average.
Atlético Rafaela are clear favourites: 47% against 22% for the opponent, draw 31%.
2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 43%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlético Rafaela are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Atlético Rafaela are 93 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético Rafaela — Patronato de Parana What is xG? | 1.3–0.8 | |
| Atlético Rafaela not to lose | 78% | |
| Patronato de Parana not to lose | 53% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 43% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 57% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 38% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 62% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atlético Rafaela
- Atlético Rafaela goals
- Patronato de Parana goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Match events
- 22′Juan Capurro · Atlético Rafaela
- 37′Renzo Reynaga · Patronato de Parana
- 52′Gonzalo Salega · Patronato de Parana
Substitutions (10)
- 7′Juan Capurro ↔ Esteban Pepino · Atlético Rafaela
- 65′Tomás Attis ↔ Alejo Miró · Patronato de Parana
- 65′Joaquín Barolín ↔ Renzo Reynaga · Patronato de Parana
- 71′Santiago Piccioni ↔ Gonzalo Salega · Patronato de Parana
- 71′Augusto Picco ↔ Brandon Cortés · Patronato de Parana
- 75′Juan Cavallaro ↔ Leonardo Flores · Atlético Rafaela
- 75′Federico Jourdan ↔ Agustín Obando · Atlético Rafaela
- 84′Jeremias Torrens ↔ Juan Capurro · Atlético Rafaela
- 84′Ijiel Protti ↔ Lucas Albertengo · Atlético Rafaela
- 94′Luciano Strey ↔ Joaquín Barolín · Patronato de Parana
Lineups
Atlético Rafaela
- GKMayco Bergia
- DFLeonardo Flores75′
- DFUlises Yegros
- DFFernando Ponce
- DFEnzo Wuattier
- MFAgustín Obando75′
- MFNahuel Cainelli
- MFFacundo Soloa
- MFEsteban Pepino7′
- FWLucas Albertengo84′
- FWJoel Bonifacio
Came on (5)
- MFJuan Cavallaro15′
- FWIjiel Protti6′
- MFFederico Jourdan15′
- MFJuan Capurro77′
- FWJeremias Torrens6′
Patronato de Parana
- GKAlan Sosa
- DFNahuel Génez
- DFWalter Rueda
- DFFernando Evangelista
- DFFranco Meritello
- MFBrandon Cortés71′
- MFJuan Pablo Barinaga
- MFAlejo Miró65′
- MFGonzalo Salega71′
- FWFranco Soldano
- FWRenzo Reynaga65′
Came on (4)
- FWJoaquín Barolín25′
- DFSantiago Piccioni19′
- FWTomás Attis25′
- MFAugusto Picco19′
Form
- 25.10away · Colegiales1:1
- 17.10Quilmes1:0
- 10.10away · CA Ferrocarril Midland0:4
- 04.10Atlanta2:3
- 28.09away · Gimnasia y Tiro0:1
- 25.10Agropecuario0:2
- 17.10away · Tristán Suárez0:1
- 11.10Atlético Güemes2:0
- 04.10away · Chacarita Juniors0:1
- 27.09San Martín San Juan3:0
Head to head
- 14.06.2026Patronato de Parana — Atlético Rafaela0:0
Primera Nacional on the same day
- 4929221The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 5329181The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.1
- 4033261The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.1.9
- 5131181The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.1.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →