Primera Nacional, round 36 · Monday, 2 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio El Gigante del Norte
Gimnasia y Tiro — Quilmes
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In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Gimnasia y Tiro to win (53%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 53% fails in about 47 matches out of 100 on average.
Gimnasia y Tiro are clear favourites: 53% against 18% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 40%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Gimnasia y Tiro are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- Gimnasia y Tiro are 170 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 3 meetings: Gimnasia y Tiro 1 win, Quilmes 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Gimnasia y Tiro — Quilmes What is xG? | 1.4–0.7 | |
| Gimnasia y Tiro not to lose | 82% | |
| Quilmes not to lose | 47% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 40% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 60% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 38% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 62% |
91 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Gimnasia y Tiro
- Gimnasia y Tiro goals
- Quilmes goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Match events
- 10′Juan Aimale · Quilmes0:1
- 36′Santino Rodríguez · Quilmes
- 81′Tiago Borquez · Gimnasia y Tiro
Substitutions (9)
- 46′Franco Sivetti ↔ Ivo Facundo Chaves · Gimnasia y Tiro
- 59′Juan Capano ↔ Juan Rocca · Gimnasia y Tiro
- 59′Gabriel Díaz ↔ Jonás Aguirre · Gimnasia y Tiro
- 59′Rubén Villarreal ↔ Gonzalo Manuel Soto · Gimnasia y Tiro
- 73′Nicolás Colazo ↔ Gonzalo Vega · Quilmes
- 82′Joel Gordillo ↔ Tiago Borquez · Gimnasia y Tiro
- 82′Gabriel Vázquez ↔ Juan Aimale · Quilmes
- 90′Mauro Fernández ↔ Agustín Ortega · Quilmes
- 90′Santiago Luna ↔ Axel Batista · Quilmes
Lineups
Gimnasia y Tiro
- GKFederico Cosentino
- DFJuan Oviedo
- DFAdolfo Tallura
- DFGonzalo Manuel Soto59′
- DFIvo Facundo Chaves46′
- MFPablo Rodriguez
- MFTiago Borquez82′
- MFJonás Aguirre59′
- FWNicolás Contín
- FWJuan Rocca59′
- FWIgnacio Batista
Came on (5)
- DFGabriel Díaz31′
- DFRubén Villarreal31′
- MFFranco Sivetti44′
- DFJoel Gordillo8′
- MFJuan Capano31′
Quilmes
- GKGonzalo Marinelli
- DFJoaquín Novillo
- DFAgustín Bindella
- DFLucas Romeo
- DFAgustín Ortega
- DFSantino Rodríguez
- MFAxel Batista
- MFFacundo Yozwiak
- FWAarón Spetale
- FWGonzalo Vega73′
- FWJuan Aimale82′
Came on (2)
- MFNicolás Colazo17′
- FWGabriel Vázquez8′
Form
- 25.10away · CA Ferrocarril Midland0:3
- 17.10Atlanta3:1
- 11.10away · Gimnasia Jujuy2:2
- 05.10away · San Martín de Tucumán0:1
- 28.09Atlético Rafaela1:0
- 24.10San Martín de Tucumán2:1
- 17.10away · Atlético Rafaela0:1
- 10.10Agropecuario0:1
- 03.10away · Tristán Suárez0:0
- 26.09Atlético Güemes2:0
Head to head
- 13.06.2026Quilmes — Gimnasia y Tiro1:0
- 14.06.2025Gimnasia y Tiro — Quilmes2:1
- 08.02.2025Quilmes — Gimnasia y Tiro1:1
Next match
- Ferro Carril OesteGimnasia y Tiro15 November · Primera Nacional · preliminary4531241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.1
Primera Nacional on the same day
- 4929221The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 4033261The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.1.9
- 4731221The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.1
- 5131181The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.1.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →