Brazilian Serie B, round 37 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Avaí — São Bernardo
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Avaí are slightly stronger: 43% against 29%, draw 29%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 45%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Avaí higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Avaí — No. 17, 37 pts; São Bernardo — No. 10, 52 pts. A gap of 15 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Avaí — São Bernardo What is xG? | 1.2–1.0 | |
| Avaí not to lose | 71% | |
| São Bernardo not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 39% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 61% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Avaí
- Avaí goals
- São Bernardo goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Avaí | São Bernardo |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.08 | 1.56 |
| Shots | 13.6 | 11.3 |
| On target | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| Corners | 5.8 | 4.8 |
| Cards | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 46 | 48 |
Form
- 01.11away · Náutico0:1
- 24.10Botafogo SP0:2
- 18.10Athletic Club MG0:0
- 12.10away · Cuiabá1:0
- 08.10Londrina2:1
- 02.11away · Cuiabá2:1
- 24.10Vila Nova3:2
- 18.10Criciúma0:1
- 11.10away · Juventude2:2
- 07.10away · Sport Recife1:2
Head to head
- 18.07.2026São Bernardo — Avaí1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Goiás | 36 | 16 | -3 | 55 |
| 10 | São Bernardo | 36 | 14 | +11 | 52 |
| 11 | Operário-PR | 36 | 14 | -2 | 51 |
| 16 | Ceará | 36 | 11 | -8 | 43 |
| 17, Relegation | Avaí | 36 | 10 | -13 | 37 |
| 18, Relegation | Londrina | 36 | 8 | -9 | 32 |
Brasileirao Serie B on the same day
- 4028321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- 5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →