Brazilian Serie B, round 37 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Novorizontino — Fortaleza
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In short
Novorizontino are clear favourites: 54% against 20% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Novorizontino are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
- Novorizontino are 166 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Novorizontino — No. 1, 67 pts; Fortaleza — No. 4, 62 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Novorizontino: unbeaten in 5; Fortaleza: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Novorizontino — Fortaleza What is xG? | 1.6–0.9 | |
| Novorizontino not to lose | 80% | |
| Fortaleza not to lose | 46% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Novorizontino | Fortaleza |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| xG per match | 1.79 | 1.28 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.88 | 0.81 |
| Shots | 18.7 | 13.2 |
| On target | 6.5 | 3.8 |
| Corners | 6.2 | 4.7 |
| Cards | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 45 | 56 |
Form
- 02.11Operário-PR2:1
- 24.10away · Atlético-GO1:0
- 19.10away · Vila Nova2:2
- 13.10Ponte Preta5:1
- 09.10away · Náutico2:0
- 02.11Atlético-GO0:0
- 25.10away · Ponte Preta2:2
- 17.10away · Sport Recife2:0
- 12.10CRB2:2
- 08.10away · América-MG1:0
Head to head
- 18.07.2026Fortaleza — Novorizontino1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Novorizontino | 36 | 19 | +33 | 67 |
| 2, Promotion | Juventude | 36 | 18 | +22 | 65 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Vila Nova | 36 | 18 | +14 | 63 |
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Fortaleza | 36 | 16 | +12 | 62 |
| 5, Promotion play-offs | Criciúma | 36 | 18 | +8 | 62 |
Brasileirao Serie B on the same day
- 4028321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- 4329291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →