UEFA Champions League, round 4 · Tuesday, 3 November, MSK
Barcelona — Aston Villa
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 3 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Barcelona are clear favourites: 76% against 8% for the opponent, draw 16%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Barcelona are about 1.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Barcelona — Aston Villa What is xG? | 2.6–0.8 | |
| Barcelona not to lose | 92% | |
| Aston Villa not to lose | 24% | |
| No draw | 84% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Barcelona
- Barcelona goals
- Aston Villa goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 13.10away · Galatasaray4:1
- 10.10Getafe3:0
- 19.09away · Sevilla3:1
- 16.09Racing Santander7:2
- 13.09away · Levante4:2
- 10.10Brentford2:2
- 19.09away · Tottenham Hotspur3:2
- 16.09away · Coventry City3:1
- 12.09Nottingham Forest1:2
- 08.09away · Club Brugge3:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Straight to the round of 16 | Barcelona | 2 | 2 | +7 | 6 |
| 2, Straight to the round of 16 | Sporting CP | 2 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Villarreal | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 12, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Atlético Madrid | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Champions League on the same day
- Shakhtar DonetskSporting CPpreliminary4026341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- GalatasarayVfB Stuttgartpreliminary4726271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- Atlético MadridBayern Münchenpreliminary1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- Manchester UnitedRomapreliminary4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- FeyenoordInterpreliminary2726472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- Bodø/GlimtLillepreliminary7118111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- VillarrealParis Saint-Germainpreliminary1923572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- LASKSlovan Bratislavapreliminary7218111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 76% will not happen in roughly 24 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →