La Liga, round 13 · Sunday, 22 November, 16:00 (UTC+3)

Barcelona — Villarreal

Model prediction for 22 November

Barcelona81%

Draw13%

Villarreal6%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Barcelona are clear favourites: 81% against 6% for the opponent, draw 13%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.

Over 2.5 goals — 72%, both teams to score — 62%.

Why

By the strength ratings Barcelona are about 1.3 goals per match stronger.
Barcelona are 347 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Barcelona — No. 1, 30 pts; Villarreal — No. 9, 12 pts. A gap of 18 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Barcelona 3 wins, Villarreal 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Barcelona — Villarreal What is xG?		2.8–1.0
Barcelona not to lose		94%
Villarreal not to lose		19%
No draw		87%
Both teams to score: yes		62%
Both teams to score: no		38%
Total over 2.5		72%
Total under 2.5		28%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Barcelona
Barcelona goals
Villarreal goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Barcelona	Villarreal
Goals scored per match	3.8	1.9
Goals conceded per match	1.5	1.6
xG per match	2.91	1.81
Opponents’ xG	1.33	1.07
Shots	19.4	16.8
On target	7.7	5.5
Corners	6.2	5.9
Cards	1.5	2.2
Possession, %	69	57

Averages per match: Barcelona — the last 10, Villarreal — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Barcelona

03.11Aston Villa3:0
31.10Deportivo Alavés6:1
25.10Real Madrid1:2
20.10away · Paris Saint-Germain2:4
17.10away · Real Betis5:2

Villarreal

03.11Paris Saint-Germain0:6
30.10Espanyol0:1
27.10away · CD Manacor5:0
24.10away · Valencia2:1
20.10away · Liverpool3:4

Head to head

28.02.2026Barcelona — Villarreal4:1
21.12.2025Villarreal — Barcelona0:2
18.05.2025Barcelona — Villarreal2:3
22.09.2024Villarreal — Barcelona1:5
27.01.2024Barcelona — Villarreal3:5

Full record: 20 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Champions League	Barcelona	11	10	0	1	46–12	+34	30
2, Champions League	Atlético Madrid	11	9	1	1	22–8	+14	28
8	Deportivo A Coruña	11	3	5	3	15–14	+1	14
9	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	15–15	0	12
10	Celta Vigo	11	2	6	3	10–10	0	12

Season 2026/27

Full table

La Liga on the same day

18:15
Racing SantanderReal Sociedadpreliminary
282746
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
20:30
OsasunaMálagapreliminary
532720
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23:00
GetafeAtlético Madridpreliminary
172757
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 81% will not happen in roughly 19 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →