La Liga, round 13 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Osasuna — Málaga
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Osasuna are clear favourites: 53% against 20% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Osasuna are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- Osasuna are 181 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Osasuna — No. 15, 11 pts; Málaga — No. 20, 5 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Osasuna — Málaga What is xG? | 1.6–0.9 | |
| Osasuna not to lose | 80% | |
| Málaga not to lose | 47% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Osasuna
- Osasuna goals
- Málaga goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Osasuna | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| xG per match | 1.64 | 1.05 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.53 | 1.63 |
| Shots | 11.9 | 12.5 |
| On target | 4.3 | 3.4 |
| Corners | 3.3 | 5.4 |
| Cards | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Possession, % | 47 | 52 |
Form
- 02.11away · Deportivo A Coruña1:2
- 29.10away · Atletico Calatayud6:0
- 26.10away · Sevilla0:2
- 18.10Racing Santander2:0
- 11.10away · Real Betis2:5
- 31.10away · Real Betis1:2
- 27.10away · Sporting de Alcazar3:0
- 23.10away · Deportivo Alavés1:1
- 18.10Real Sociedad2:5
- 09.10Espanyol1:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Espanyol | 11 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 11 | 3 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 11 | 3 | -14 | 11 |
| 19, Relegation | Valencia | 11 | 2 | -9 | 9 |
| 20, Relegation | Málaga | 11 | 0 | -13 | 5 |
La Liga on the same day
- BarcelonaVillarrealpreliminary811361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:23.8
- Racing SantanderReal Sociedadpreliminary2827462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- GetafeAtlético Madridpreliminary1727572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →